Thursday 19 January 2017

Making Up For Deficiencies

Robbo the trader suggested that:
Whilst you and snidey James pontificate 'it can't be done' traders like Peter and Caan rake in in the dosh, kerchinnnng.
I'll let James respond first before I add my thoughts. James replies:
Whilst the acolytes work themselves into a frenzy over the latest post or video by Sir Peter or Sir Caan, Cassini and Snidey James (I thought it was Sydney James, nevermind) don't say "It can't be done" they say, "It is not as easy as Sir makes you think it is."
We (and other realists such as Joseph Buchdahl) tell the truth about betting and trading. Others create an illusion for you to lap up because their real incomes depend on you being taken in by the simplicity of what they say.
I don't see any real evidence that either of them trade that much. Do you have such evidence?
It's Big Pairs again. If I owned a 7 figure software subscription business I wouldn't waste my time sports trading.
Obviously, trading is not that easy otherwise you wouldn't have posted your comment. You'd be getting it quietly.
As James states, no one has ever, at least to the best of my knowledge, stated that "it can't be done", but in this era of court-siding, I am of the opinion that trading tennis is about the unlikeliest place where a novice is likely to find an edge, and where even more experienced traders will struggle to break-even long term competing at such a disadvantage. 

If Robbo, Webby, Caan or anyone else can come up with any kind of logical reasoning explaining how a long-term advantage can be obtained in a market where others have a significant advantage, I'd love to hear it. 

A comment from a Steve on Caan's own blog back in July 2014 pretty much sums up my thoughts:
You’re all acting as if these are unchartered waters, tennis is one of those sports that is probably more automated than any other with plenty of teams botting the markets using very sophisticated stats based software. Surely the recent courtsiding legal issues should have shown you that.
The markets are very efficient and driven by probabilities, stats dictate what the prices should be, overall they earn the operators fortunes by being more informed than the majority. Of course there are chinks in their armour and they’re happy to leak a few quid here and there on the basis the majority will pay it back with interest. Just don’t go in assuming because you’ve come out on top in a few markets you’ve cracked the tennis because you can be pretty sure someone’s put in a lot more effort to crack it.
Interesting that Steve's comment was the final one on that post, as if everyone reading it suddenly realised how silly they were. Well, at least for a few minutes. 

As for whether Webby or Caan are 'raking in the dosh' from trading tennis, only they know. That Webby hasn't mentioned the Premium Charge in over five years may be a reflection of a reduction in trading activity in general, and if Caan's making money, he's not acting very maturely with it:
So its been a while since I treated myself to a new car.. In fact I seem to do it once a year and you may remember a couple of years back I bought a pretty sporty Astra which was pretty new at the time, it managed to cost me a small fortune in the space of a year so I got rid of it. I want a new car now although, I don’t want the same happening to me again. I like cars although haven’t much of a clue whats best to be looking at so I thought some of you might be able to help me out!

Ideally I want to get a new Porsche Cayman GTS although with a near on £60,000 price tag its going to have to wait as the money will be better spent on getting a house and living rent free initially. In the mean time though I wouldn’t mind a change. Currently im driving a BMW 325 which I actually rate quite well, excluding the fuel consumption that is. I have to drive a considerable distance each time I have my son so long-term it’s not a great idea, plus I’d like something a little more sporty. I think its important to treat yourself every now and then too as it boosts that motivation to kick on…
Admittedly Caan is very young, but if buying a new car every year is what it takes to "boost that motivation to kick on", I'd seek professional help. From the always reliable Daily Mail:
The old adage goes that a man driving a big car is compensating for something - and according to the latest research, there might be some truth in it.
A new survey asked sports car drivers, as well as their partners, about the size of their nether regions, and - as expected - they got wildly different answers.
The results seemed to suggest that people who buy big, flashy cars are indeed making up for deficiencies in the trouser department.
Perhaps, but buying a new car is a waste of money in my opinion. Buy one that's a year old, that has taken the depreciation hit, and still has a warranty and thousands of miles ahead of it.

James suggests that "Obviously, trading is not that easy otherwise you wouldn't have posted your comment. You'd be getting it quietly" and there's a lot of truth to this idea. 

In my experience, mature, successful people in general tend not to feel the need to tell everyone about how successful they are. 

When was the last time you saw an ad for Rolls Royce? It's not a coincidence that when selling a 'product' related to gambling, an expensive car, exotic location, big house and swimming pool seem to be 'must-haves', which speaks volumes for the target audience I guess. Hinting at a few hot babes throwing themselves at you surely can't hurt either:
Back to James' comment, and of course it makes no sense for Webby to waste his time trading when the money to be made is in selling software. It makes sense to write about how impossible it is to lose when using that software, but there's an opportunity cost to actually trading, especially if you have been successful in the past and have reached Super Premium Charges.

I am heading out for the evening now in my brand new Koenigsegg CCXR Trevita now to get wasted with a few expensive girlfriends, before returning home to my villa, where after a quick swim in my pool, I shall turn on the TV and trade the Australian Open. 


James said...

Excellent post. How long before the first irate fan boy turns up to defend their masters?

It's rather bold of Caan to be asking his readership which car he should buy with their money.

Imagine a mugger asking his victim if he should buy an iPhone or an iPad with the contents of their wallet.

No wonder Caan doesn't sell his wares through Amazon. Instead, opting to sell only through his website with no chance of a refund through PayPal, if the PDF or video turns out not to be up to scratch.

All to be expected from a pair of characters who started their careers in sales and marketing and appear not to have left it.

Bet Angel is decent enough software for manual trading (whilst such activity lasts), although Advanced Cymatic Trader is just as good but much cheaper. I just wish Webby would stop making out that it's a money printing machine that anyone can operate, which it plainly isn't.

Caan is just the sports trading equivalent of Jordan Belfort, a motivational speaker and nothing else. His blog posts are vacuous and often semi-literate, which probably hits the right level for his readership.


Sidney James. Somewhere Up The Khyber Pass. Fworrrr! Nyah. Nyah. Nyah!

BotTrader said...

Some wit from James, what's the world coming too!

I was discussing the various Betfair 'pros' with a fellow trader recently and we both came to the conclusion they all seem to be aligned as 'star strikers' for the various software sellers. Hard to know if this is by design or just one of those quirks that each team's striker is also representative of the team they support ;)

Adam Heathcote set the community, and BetAngel fortunes?, alight with his rise to fame and fortune but then disappeared after the failure of Exchange Secrets, possibly too secret that nobody fell for it. Was Adam too 'wet' to represent BetAngel, had just played his part or taking the limelight from the owner? Either way it left an opening up front for the happy go lucky and reliable balding uncle Peter to fill the position. Peter likes to play on his stable financial background and regales us of his business meetings in the USA possibly aiming for a more discerning crowd. Every now and then we get the odd (shill?) poster no longer satisfied with his fortune as a stock market trader and asks if his skills would be transferrable as a sports trader. As if he even needed to ask, of course the answer is a big YES from me, and me, and me, as the forum eggs him on to even greater riches and freedom.

The 'Wimbledon' of the trading world seems to be the maverick GeeksToy squad who aim for a completely different demographic relying mainly on ex-army 'grunt' Caan Berry as their main striker. Ain't got no education, just works and plays hard to reap those rewards of fancy cars and flash holidays. All backed up by fancy websites and once only offers of free geekstoy subscriptions with every ebook. Hard to imagine Caan coding and setting up a website but I suppose if the club owner is a web programmer it's not that hard. Geekstoy also have a reserve striker in the form of little known Jack Birhead who also regales us of fancy holidays in Barcelona from his grans bedsit somewhere ooop north.

Lower down the divisions we have the once mighty Racing Traders whose fortunes have dwindled and now have to rely on the 'abilities' of the straight talking aussie 'The Badger', so good he even has his own nickname. And finally the relegation fodder, Gruss, whose star striker AintItaRightMugsGame is an ex Betangel player, obviously not good enough to make the first team and passed to Gruss on a free transfer. Luckily for ItsAMug his council estate in Coventry is in the Midlands where the Gruss founders are conveniently based so he can always pop around to borrow a cup of sugar if there's ever a lull in the activity on the busy Gruss Forum.

On a side note I just noticed not everyone is swallowing the hype and someone's pointed out a lot of old 'sleeper' shill? accounts have come out to cheer on the team in this hour of need.

"by SeaHorseRacing » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:42 am
This thread is turning into a wakening of the dead. :lol:

Some old timers back it appears?"

Well I never, have the worms finally turned?

James said...

"Some wit"? How dare you?

You encapsulated the state of play rather well.

That's you marked for life then. ;) Welcome to the club.

I hope Uncle Peter doesn't have your email address otherwise you'll be getting the treatment. I keep copies for those nights when I struggle to sleep.