Saturday 21 April 2018

NBA 2017 Regular Season Review

The NBA 2017-18 season concluded a few days ago, and for The Beast, which suggested backing Overs when the total was 215.5 or higher, the final numbers are:

The maximum return (34.96 points) was actually when backing at 216 points or higher, so being off the optimum total by half a point is pretty good, if I do say so myself.

In terms of ROI, and a minimum of 100 bets, the best return was 16.3% at the 225 points or higher level. 

The average total line increased this season as expected, although not by quite as much as I was expecting after 2016's giant leap, although worth noting that the average in the last two months (March and April) climbed to 214.6:
I'm sure I'll be looking at these numbers in more detail closer to the start of next season, but the trend to more three point shots and average number of possessions doesn't show any signs of slowing down.

Backing Road Favourites also returned to profitability this season after a rare losing season with the highest number of selections ever:
Note that backing road favourites giving more than 10.5 points is not profitable, so the above results are for road favourites below that handicap.

The optimal range saw the ROI% at almost 7%.
The other (almost) perennially profitable system is backing Road Favourites coming off a loss when playing an opponent coming off a win. While not quite reaching the heights of 2013, an ROI of 33.75%, albeit from a small bet total of 54, was solid enough.

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