Resurrection

Well, March was an interesting month. The blog celebrated its tenth anniversary while its creator decided to ignore abdominal pains for 12 days resulting in emergency surgery and a few days in hospital and, in the consultant's words, "dodging a bullet". After six decades of almost perfect health, to be close to checking out was a bit of a shock, and an opportunity to reassess priorities.

It's been over a month since my last post, which is a record by some margin, but the daily hit count averaged around 300 during my absence which wasn't bad. The last post on the topic of the types of gamblers and why they gamble received one comment from Jamie, who wrote:

Couldn't agree more with the comment about expert gamblers not getting excited about big wins. That of course would also be the case towards losses and not getting emotional towards them also.

The emotional side towards money is a big difference between novice and expert gamblers and a trait that is very underestimated.

A video that provoked thoughts for me towards money was a clip from trader Anton Kreil. "Respect money but at the same time be indifferent towards it" Worth a watch. Especially around the 10 min mark where he starts to put money on the table.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTbiFqqlN_g

Worth a watch, although having read reviews of Anton's Forex trading videos priced at close to $3,000, I wouldn't recommend going down that path. 

For me, the big difference between novice and expert gamblers is the expectations each has. The expert understands the problems with scaling, and that it is a long-term activity with ROIs generally in the low single digits. The novice unrealistically thinks in terms of doubling their bank every few weeks. 

The expert is patient, looking for market weaknesses and not caring if he has a bet or not for a few days, while the novice thinks there's value to be found daily in popular football markets, finding patterns where none exist. While confidence is a good thing, it needs to be based on reality. The reality is that when you are betting, you are competing against people far more experienced and knowledgeable than yourself, and it's delusional to think that betting or trading successfully is something that anyone can do.

You require a very particular set of skills. Skills acquired over a very long career.

My betting activities were curtailed somewhat during March, which might not have been a bad thing. The Beast had a losing month, although still profitable for the season to date:

The regular season ends on Wednesday 11th April, but as one door closes, another opens with the 2018 MLB season now underway. The T-Bone System is off to a good start, with four straight winners and two more selections today - the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs. Here are the results from the last ten seasons: