Monday, 29 October 2018

MyBookie Gets It Wrong

The World Series is over for another year, and opposing Clayton Kershaw in play-off games again paid dividends. He pitched seven innings, gave up four runs, including two in the top of the first inning as the Los Angeles Dodgers lost 1-4 to the Boston Red Sox last night.
Two home runs were score by Boston's Steve Pearce, (the World Series MVP) with his Wikipedia entry updated to reflect his performance:
The two NFL selections both won last night, the Seattle Seahawks straight up, while Tampa Bay Buccaneers were getting four points and lost by three. That should, barring any dramatic late line moves, take us to an 'official' 20-14-1 for the season:
In the Premier League, backing the Draw in qualifying Little 14 matches was again profitable this weekend, with Draws in the Southampton v Newcastle United and Leicester City v West Ham United matches.

+3.15 points on the weekend, and an ROI of 14.3% so far on the season.

The Big 6 game tonight between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City doesn't look likely to be a qualifier, but here are the numbers for all Big 6 games since 2012:
A story in USA today is a little strange:
Think a blue wave is coming in the midterm election that will sweep out Republicans .and usher in a Democratically-controlled Congress?
Don't bet on it, gamblers on at least one online betting site are saying.

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory.

As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House.
Indeed this book does have these prices, and they are wrong:
For those unfamiliar with US odds, -140 is 1.71 in decimal, while +110 is 2.1.

Betway currently has these more realistic prices:
Betfair is similar with the Democrats available at 1.59, and the Repuglicans at 2.62.


A huge arb opportunity on the face of it, but you won't be able to bet much with MyBookie whose limits are very low. They also state that:
But if you happen to have an account with them, check it out. My 'bet' is that you'll be restricted to peanuts and this is just for the publicity.  

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