Wednesday, 17 October 2018

October Effect, Kershaw and Sliders

Although the numbers don't support the idea of an 'October effect', the month has certainly had a few memorable losses including the Panic of 1907, Black Tuesday (1929), Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1929) and Black Monday (1987). 


The only one of those that some readers might remember is the great crash of 1987 that occurred on October 19 and saw the Dow Jones index fall 22.61% in a single day and which remains the largest daily percentage loss.
Ten years ago, October 2008 was also a memorable month. The Dow Jones was down 16.79% and Betfair took their first Premium Charges from me, with the benefit of hindsight, a very modest and reasonable 20%.
It's also October when Matchbook introduce their Premium Charge, and last October was also the most recent negative month on my 'net-worth' spreadsheet, although this October looks likely to take over that undesired record. Coincidence of course, and the biggest trend of all is that the market goes up over time - long-term buy and hold is the winning strategy.

Clayton Kershaw is back tonight in possibly his last ever start for the Los Angeles Dodgers who tied the NLCS at two games each in a late game yesterday that went 13 innings, the second longest NLCS game ever. Dodgers are of course favourites, as they have been in 160 of 171 matches all season and in every game since August 3rd. This might be a good game to trade with it's local afternoon start time, i.e. 10:05 pm UK time. If Brewers pitcher Wade Miley doesn't last long, the Over 7.0 looks good as well as a Dodgers win. If Miley goes deep, then it's Unders and Brewers. 

Speaking of totals, anyone else hate the slider markets that Betfair now use? It's rare that I trade these days, but trading these markets is impossible.

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