Sunday, 13 January 2019

NFL Divisional Round 2018

The New England Patriots are unique among NFL teams in that when it comes to the playoffs, there's a relative abundance of data to look at. 

While every NFL team has played in at least one playoff game since the current format was introduced, yes, even the Cleveland Browns, exactly half have played in games totaling in single digits. 

Far and away at the top of the list is the Patriots with 34 games, soon to be 35 following their not unexpected thrashing of the Los Angeles Chargers this evening in the Divisional Round.

The pre-game price of 1.59 on Betfair looked remarkably generous given the Patriots 18-3 record at home in playoff games including 10-1 in Divisional games. The last nine of these games have also been Overs, with the Patriots covering the spread in 6 of the last 7 games.

Overs is generally the value bet this weekend as I mentioned last week, but for matches played on grass, the value remains on Unders, as evidenced by the two Unders in yesterday's games hosted by the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams.

The upcoming New Orleans Saints v Philadelphia Eagles game is being played on an artificial surface, and while it's a smaller data set than for the Patriots, perhaps worth mentioning that Overs has been the result in all five Saints home playoff games, and that the Saints have a 100% record straight up.

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