Friday, 22 November 2019

Newtonian Laws, Proof and Irrationality


@Lordlard made a similar point in a comment on my previous post Why Betting Systems Work. He wrote:
Other advantage of systems are on the behavioural side: they completely kill any emotion in betting. Events are ‘numbers’ in a never ending dataset and abstract from what they actually ‘are’...and not even worth watching. You can watch sport for purpose of watching sport only.
As I've said before, if you have a 'proven' system, then...:
To get worked up over individual bets is as unproductive as a casino manager worrying over the outcomes of individual pulls of the slot machines.
'Proven' is in quotes because when it comes to sports betting and markets, there can be no such thing. If a system were 'proven', it would no longer work. 

Even the 'immutable' laws of Physics, are only 'immutable' with respect to defined conditions. If conditions change, for example in Physics, events occurring at atomic and subatomic scales do not follow Newtonian laws, then the outcome may be different.

We can all agree that conditions would definitely change if a betting system was 'proven'. 

The fact is that markets change. Even a system with 19 consecutive winning years will eventually lose. As gamblers, albeit hopefully with an edge, we understand that. 
"The trend is your friend, but you know it will end"
The trick is to identify an edge, and play it until the edge is gone. In the same way that trying to time market tops and bottoms precisely in stocks is a futile task, so is timing when an edge starts and ends being profitable, but that's no reason to miss out on making gains for most of that period.

The one constant would appear to be that humans act irrationally. 

Speaking of winning systems, and the NFL Small Road Dogs moved to 33-22-1 for the season after the Indianapolis Colts covered in Houston last night. 
The ROI for this season is currently the second highest since the league re-organisation in 2002. Hopefully some of you followed me on that one. As a Divisional game, it was also an Unders pick and 14-3 for the season is excellent.
Since revealing that nugget more than two years ago, the ROI on the subsequent 207 bets has an ROI of 9%. I hope someone took note.

By now, everyone must be on the College Football Road 'Dogs who started Week 13 well with Eastern Michigan (+3.5) winning at Northern Illinois by 28 points. The season record now stands at 55-34-6.  With the season almost over for the system, the winning streak almost certainly continues into a 20th season next August. 

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