Friday, 11 September 2020

G7 Home Dog and MLB Woes

We have another Game 7 in the NBA tonight, in the Boston Celtics v Toronto Raptors series, where five of the six games so far have gone Under, with the exception being the double-overtime Game 6 where the 51 extra-time points took the total comfortably over. With the Toronto Raptors getting 2.5 points, this is only the third time in database history (since 2002) that the Home team has not been favourites, although this season all games are being played on a neutral court so it's not a huge surprise. Both of those previous games went Under.

Baseball continues to be an outlier of a season, with hot favourites unprofitable for the first time since 2014:
With some perspective, the results this season don't look so terrible with some nice profits in the bank from previous seasons, but it's tough to keep backing during a downturn, especially when the schedules and rules have been changed so dramatically.

Backing weaker favourites this season would have been profitable, but typically these are losing propositions. Clearly all the changes MLB has made this season have affected the markets. 

The Totals systems have also been messed up with the mid-season decision to make all double header games seven innings. August saw Unders as profitable in these games, but so far in September the value has been on the Overs. 

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