Tuesday, 27 October 2020

Back to Baseball, Biden and Barrow

I'm back a couple of days earlier than originally scheduled, which is a good thing as it means everything went according to plan, and so with the World Series still in progress there are still another one, or maybe two, games for me to add to the season profit reported in the last post. Game Six is tonight with the Los Angles Dodgers 3-2 up in the series and favourites versus the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Draws in the EPL are also back after starting the new season with none in the first 20 matches, the pace has since picked up with 13 in the last 38. The "Toss-Up" matches are up by 3.71 points using Pinnacle's closing prices, but we've only had three selections. As a reminder, in these matches, backing the Draw in all matches has an ROI of 7.33% (adjusted for an overround of 103%) since 2000. The ROI in Big 6 games is now over 31% in that period following last weekend's perfect draw in the Manchester United v Chelsea game.

In politics, the US Elections are less than a week away, and Biden is still value at 1.51 / 1.52. To reach 270 Electoral College votes, Trump needs to secure all the Lean, Likely and Solid red states, the five "toss-up" states, plus three of the "Lean Democratic" states unless he can win Pennsylvania in which case one other state would do it. That seems a tough ask, and his poll numbers are tanking by the day with early voting at a record high with over 70 million people already having voted. For those who say "yeah, but the polls were wrong in 2016", one week prior to the election in 2016, Clinton was up by between 2.2 and 3.5 percentage points (and won the popular vote by around 3 million). Biden today leads by 7.4 to 9.1 points.  

Finally, congratulations to Barrow who tonight won their first Football League game in over 48 and a half years, a new record as even Brighton haven't gone that long between league wins.  

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