Thursday, 29 October 2020

Blue: Dodgers, Moons and Waves

As it turned out, just the one World Series game was left with the Los Angeles Dodgers winning their first title in 32 years, but another profit took the final season total to £538.56 which, as I mentioned before, feels more of a win than it should. 

The bad news is that with the NBA, NHL and MLB seasons all ending fairly recently, it could be a while before the daily leagues return, which for the indoor sports is usually around this time of year. 

For the record, in the MLB play-offs this season Unders had 28 wins to 25, (and 100% when the game time temperature was less than 55F as was the case in the Regular season), while backing the favourite was profitable on both the Money Line (+7.21 units / 9.1%) and the Run Line (+13.95 / 25.2%). Other than in 2017, this hasn't typically been a profitable strategy in recent seasons, but this season was by no means typical and I'm not sure we can read too much into it.

The NFL season appears not to be hugely impacted by the reduction in crowd size, sometimes to zero, with the Small Road Dogs System 14-9 for the season so far. Not a big surprise given that this simple system has had just two losing seasons since 2005.

The question for this season was always whether the market would continue to over-value the Home side even with no or fewer fans in attendance, and the answer so far appears to be yes.

In the Presidential Election, Biden has drifted slightly from 1.51 / 1.52 to 1.53 / 1.54, tremendous value unless you believe the polls are more wrong than they have ever been before.

The Economist has Joe Biden with a 96% probability of winning the Electoral College and to win Pennsylvania, around 93%. As Political Gambler Paul Motty noted today in this article, Biden at 1.53 (was 1.59 at the time of the article) looks like another solid bet. 

The race for the Senate is also interesting and having backed the Democrats at 2.84 early this month, the price has moved in the right direction. It's interesting to note that since 1900 there has never been a Congress where the House and President have been Democrat controlled while the Senate has been Republican controlled. The Economist actually gives the Democrats an 83% chance of controlling the Senate, although this includes the tie. 

The tight Senate races in Georgia (two), Iowa and South Carolina will decide this. 

Hopefully the theme of blue will continue next week. The Dodgers play in blue, there's a blue moon in America for the first time since March 2018, and the first for the whole country on Halloween since 1944, and a blue wave or tsunami to come on Tuesday.

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