Sunday, 4 October 2020

COVID-19 Suspends Play

For the last few days I have been away on my first work trip since January, and as a result of a positive COVID-19 test at one of the sites I visited, am now in quarantine. The good news is that you will likely see an increase in posts, and if this is not the case, then it's likely bad news and it was good knowing you!

The big news while I was away was that several of the US Presidential Election markets are currently suspended on Betfair due to the President testing positive. There's some confusion about why Betfair would do this given that in similar, although arguably less serious previous instances (e.g. Clinton 2016 pneumonia, Sanders heart attack) the market has not been suspended. The last price traded for Biden to win was 1.52, so hopefully many of you are in good shape, unlike Trump.

With 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the market here is also interesting, with the Democrats now favourites to have a Senate Majority at 2.8 in a three-way race with the tie very much a possibility. Republicans currently have 53 of the 100 seats and 23 of the 35 seats in this election are held by Republicans.

The Democrats will probably lose their senator in Alabama (Doug Jones) who won a special election in 2017, which means that Democrats need to win five of the 23 seats for control. Four would give them a tie, and with the Vice-President likely to be Kamala Harris, in effect that would be a win, but for betting purposes, only a tie.

Of the 23 seats, the Democrats are currently projected to win those of Martha McSally (Arizona), Cory Gardner (Colorado) and Susan Collins (Maine) which means they need one to tie and two to win from the toss-up seats of Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana) and Thom Tillis (North Carolina). In addition, four seats are in the 'lean' category and could yet move to toss-up. One seat to keep an eye on here is Lindsay Graham's in South Carolina where polling shows a close race, the incumbent being out raised financially, and as chairman of the Senate Judicial Committee will be spending a lot of time in Washington on the Supreme Court nomination. 

On the more traditional sporting events, the NFL Small Road 'Dogs System continues to produce winners. Week Three saw nine selections, with six winners taking the season record to 10-6. It's looking like we only have two selections today.

My father-in-law is currently in shock following the San Diego Padres first playoff series win in 22 years last week as they advanced to the NLDS where they will play the Los Angeles Dodgers. One piece of history from their win in Game Three against St Louis Cardinals is that the Padres were the first team in major league history, regular season or playoffs, to complete a nine-inning shutout by using at least nine pitchers.

So far in the MLB playoffs, as was the case with the NBA (41-35) and NHL (66-52), Unders is the play on totals with an 11-7 record. 

With the increase in goals per game in the EPL, the Draw continues to be an elusive outcome, but more on that later once we have the official prices for the fourth round of games from Mr. Buchdahl. 

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