Thursday, 13 May 2021

What A Drag

They are still favourites to win the World Series, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen to third in their Division behind the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres. After starting the season with 13 wins from the first 15 games, they lost 15 of the next 20, despite not being the underdog once. 

When the starting pitcher is right handed, there is an ROI of 93.5% when opposing the Dodgers in non-Divisional matches, but in Divisional games where the sides typically are more familiar with each other, right handed starters mean it is profitable to back the Dodgers, but the season is still fairly young so don't get too excited. It's just another angle to keep an eye on.

The familiar T-Bone System is in positive territory this season, with National League matches boasting an ROI of 11%. Backing 'Hot Favourites' got off to a slow start, but with a current streak of seven wins the ROI is down just 1.1%

For the Totals Systems, results are mixed so far. Overs are struggling, overall down 4.53 units but mostly in the National League, while Unders are up 22.22 units so at least the Combined Totals are in profit once again. 
I wasn't sure how Totals would play out this year with the introduction of a new baseball but experts had determined that:
the new baseball is bouncier, yielding higher exit velocities than in years past, and also possesses more drag, as it is not traveling as far.
The key is that the early numbers seem to back up the theory that the baseball isn't traveling as far. Fewer Home Runs in April than in 2019 (no April games in 2020), and home run totals are at their lowest since April 2017. It does appear that the betting markets haven't yet adjusted to account for this.

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