Friday 1 July 2022

Doctor Doctor, Gives Me The News

It's always good to receive comments and feedback, and my old friend @DrTsouts was kind enough to send me his results after following some of my systems.


Overall his ROI is 7.1%, with the details (shown with the good Dr's permission) as follows:
The highest individual system ROI is from the low volume "English Finals Draws" followed by "Africa" (which was the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations played earlier this year) with the NFL systems also performing well.

With a losing ROI of 35%, the MLB Overs system is the biggest drain on the profits, but as I mentioned in the last post, right now I am not involving myself with games with National League clubs due to the changes to the Designated Hitter rule. As we saw this season with the NBA Overs System, when there is a significant rule change, established edges can rapidly be eroded, although in the case of the NBA the outcome was fewer bets rather than a lost edge. 

The reported EPL Draws loss was interesting given that for the Close matches my ROI% numbers for last season are 2.4% and for the Toss Up matches, 14.6% but Dr Tsouts confirmed that these results were for the second half of last season and as I wrote in January, this system declines sharply after December, a trend that continued in the season just ended, with the numbers for the two 'halves' since 2000-01 updated below:
Before you ask "well why don't we just follow this system for the first half of the year?", there are some interesting trends when looking at the day of the week when the matches are played. For example, one big exception is qualifying matches played on an April Saturday, which were again profitable this season. Wednesdays are also solid throughout the season: 
Anyway, many thanks to Dr Tsouts for sharing his actuals, and allowing me to share them with you all. 
   

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