Typical Palace

Q:Is it is just me and my biased viewpoint, or are Crystal Palace excellent value at 1.81 to beat Scunthorpe United at home tomorrow?

A: It was just me. As Mark commented:

So typical Palace they will probably blow it today!

Yes, typical Palace.

At least I knew better than to go crazy with the stake, but disappointing in more ways than one.

Football Elite had a loser in Koln (L 1-3 v Stuttgart).

Over at Gold All Over, I have posted up the results to date from the Free Daily Picks, both NBA and Soccer, and both are now showing a loss after a promising start. With a current losing run of six, the NBA picks are showing an ROI of -34.39% and with a current losing run of five, the soccer picks are down 12.63%. The suggested staking system is something called the 33% System -

In this system you place a series of up to 6 bets with predetermined amounts of X, 2X, 4X, 6X, 8X and 12.5X, where X is your betting unit value. For example if your unit is 10$, then your predetermined series would look like this: $10, $20, $40, $60, $80 and $125. Place one bet a day and as soon as you make profit, you stop, add your profit to the bankroll and start all over again. You need to win only 1 or 2 games (depending where you are in the series) to make a profit!

which all sounds too good to be true, and of course is. Any chasing system is doomed to failure because the long losing run is inevitable, and if your selections are not profitable at level stakes, no staking system in the world is going to help. I'll continue to follow these picks for a while longer, for one thing it's interesting to see how these hot and cold streaks occur, and for another, they are free. Whether or not they prove to be value remains to be seen. In 2011, the soccer picks apparently have a 59% strike rate, but by itself, that of course means nothing, since most picks are odds-on, with some (since I have been tracking) as low as 1.6 (62.5%).

Normal service will be resumed on Tuesday. The California sporting road trip with my son is almost over, after seeing the Los Angeles Galaxy v Philadelphia Union (1-0), (a surprisingly boisterous atmosphere), the San Diego Padres v San Francisco Giants, Golden State Warriors v Sacramento Kings (the Kings last ever win, and by one point), and San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers live, and the two Chelsea - Manchester United games in British pubs in San Diego and San Francisco. It seems strange watching games these days without a financial, or at least a trading, interest, but given my dreadful record in the month of April, that can only be a good thing.

Crystal Palace

Still overseas, so no time for too much, but is it is just me and my biased viewpoint, or are Crystal Palace excellent value at 1.81 to beat Scunthorpe United at home tomorrow? Hard to be totally objective perhaps, and I tend to avoid betting on 'my' team, but Palace at home are rather different to Palace away. Their nine home games against the lowest teams in the Championship have seen them win seven, and draw two, but Scunthorpe don't draw away from home. Concealed somewhat by their league position, they have a 13 match unbeaten home streak, with the last defeat back in October, Add to this the fact that a win for Palace will see them move ten points clear, OK nine, but with a superior goal difference, with four games to go and Palace will surely be motivated enough to secure all three points. Looks value to me.

Purple Crayon

Some comments from Jeff Macke that pertain to sports trading as well as the financial markets:

I've been a puppet, a pirate, a pauper, a poet, a pawn and a king. Also a few other things, among which are trader and pundit.

Let me push you up my learning curve and, hopefully, prevent you from paying too much tuition in the school of hard knocks. Being a puppet, pirate, pauper or pawn is terrible. Being a poet can be fun, but the pay is lousy. Being king, by which I mean you are good at what you do, are in control of your own destiny to the extent life allows such control, and you have enough in the bank so you're much more than one missed paycheck away from being forced into pauper-hood.

There are two things you need to know about the relationship between the kingdoms of punditry and trading. First, when you suggest selling assets in the midst of glorious rallies, viewers and readers get very, very upset. Second, traders make the bulk of their money trading against people who let being upset control their decision-making. That's not a moral judgement; trading isn't exactly roaming the earth bathing lepers in terms of adding value to society. Feeding on the weak and emotional is simply how life in the trading pit works.

Smart traders accept in advance that some trades are going to go horribly wrong and prepare their exit in advance. For me that means always, always, knowing the price at which I'm a seller. "Higher" is a fine upside target, but "lower" is a totally unacceptable exit plan. That's why I'm always asking "Breakout" guests what negative price or scenario would cause them to get out of a position -- not because I'm mean but because controlling your downside is the only way to trade profitably over the long term. I'm simply not going to let anyone tell viewers otherwise as long as I'm on the "Breakout" set.

My personal trade exigency plan for 90% of my holdings is literally as simple as I can make it. I draw a trendline and sell if the price falls below the line. Watch the video, and you'll know how I go about it. I kick myself, hard, when I'm wrong, but I don't question my process. In my world the market is never "stupid," I'm never "in for the long term" and I don't tell myself nonsense like "you never take a loss until you sell." I try to win and to bail quick when I lose.

To quote Huey "The Kingfish" Long, one of the great, albeit corrupt and misguided, political kings in American history: "Every man or woman can be king." It's simply a matter of staying alive and in the arena. After years over-thinking it, I realized I could limit my downside on literally any position for the price of a ruler and a box of crayons.

You can use your own system. My purple crayon has worked for me. If it stops working, I won't take it personally. I'll simply try to figure out something else.

Champions League

A quick update from the weekend - one strong draw winner from two, pushing the 2011 ROI to 11.35%, while Football Elite fell into negative ROI on the season with just one winner from five. Laying the favourite after April produced some nice wins with Green Eyed Trader reporting:

A quick mention for the laying the favourite priced between 1.3 and 1.99 you recommended for silly season - out of 21 bets this weekend across the 5 leagues 12 came good and ROI is at 36%. not too shabby!

Indeed not, although I never actually said the favourite needs to be odds-on to qualify. That is a requirement for the Bundeslayga system, but not for the 'silly season system'. The latter is more profitable when including evens and odds against favourites, although some risk averse punters may well choose to lay only those shorter prices.

The game between Chievo Verona and Sampdoria surprised absolutely nobody in finishing 0-0, highlighting the flaw in the strategy of laying these suspicious games pre-game hoping to back back after a goal. As I mentioned in an earlier post, in games like these, the draw price is unlikely to move too much anyway.

Champions League games this week, and the ratings spreadsheet performs surprising well on these inter-league games. Although the lack of data means the match odds are all over the place (for example I have Internazionale at 1.41 v Schalke '04 who are at 9.36, with the draw at 5.4 while in the Real Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur game, I have the home at 1.34, draw at 6.12 and the away at 11.14), the superiority estimates work better. Internazionale are expected to win by 1.5 and Real Madrid by 1.75. Internazionale are the better value at 1.78.

April Draws On

Strong draws this weekend are Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers (3.25) and Cesena v Fiorentina (3.25).

Weaker draw prospects are Catania v Palermo (3.1), Getafe v Valencia (3.6), Deportivo la Coruna v Real Mallorca (3.35) and Almeria v Athletic Bilbao (3.45).

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks are (again) Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers (3.25), Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30) and West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool (3.20).

Blog Changes

Since my 'birthday' post a few days ago, I've been pondering, (on my runs), about how I might be able to turn the hits I get here into something a little more spendable than a statistic. After reading the news that the New York Times "has decided to charge the most frequent users of its website for access" I think the time has come for me to consider a similar approach.

When you add up the numbers, over 1,000 posts is a lot of hours, and while (don't tell my boss), many are written while I'm on the clock at my other job, it still seems reasonable to expect some compensation for the hours put in.

Admittedly, not every post is going to improve your bottom line, but many will, and for some readers - Graeme 'The Football Analyst' springs to mind as a recent example - this blog has been the difference between success and failure. As Graeme wrote in a recent comment (I have admittedly paraphrased a little, but believe I have captured Graeme's thoughts rather succinctly, even if I do say so myself):

Been a while since I commented on here mate. I can honestly say though that I've read every one of your posts since your blog's inception and it's as a direct result of the wisdom imparted here on a frequent basis that I appear to have something that works quite well I think, and I can honestly say it is all thanks to Green All Over. If you ever start charging for this stuff, then I for one, will be only too happy to pay. 50p would be a bargain, and anything less you are just selling yourself short.

Hopefully those sentiments are shared by many of you, and the number of visits will remain constant even as I work out how best to charge. For now, I am looking at using the services of "charge-back" companies who, so they tell me, simply need an IP address, from which their 'data-mining' techniques are 'more often than not' able to link to the computer "owner's" associated PayPal account and make the deduction I deem to be fair. I'm not too sure that these companies necessarily follow the data protection laws in all countries from where I am visited, but since they work on a commission only basis, I have nothing to lose. OK, maybe a reader or two. I am thinking that 25p for each visit would be very reasonable, but please feel free to let me know if this seems a little high (or indeed, a little low) to you. I harp on a lot about value, and feel that 25p a visit is just that.

Along with deciding a fair fee, the other problem I have is that, while I have IP addresses for the past year or so, I am going to have to rely on your honesty to provide IP addresses (and number of visits) for the first two years or so of this blog's existence. If you're unsure, then I'll not complain if you would prefer to make a one-off payment, but please note your IP address to avoid being charged twice. Any debits to your accounts will be made by arthurdaley.co.uk and annotated as GREENALLOVER on your statements.

End Of Season System

With April traditionally my worst month of the year for trading, expect few, if any, posts for a couple of weeks as I will be spending a couple of weeks in the US with my son watching David Beckham, visiting some of California's MLB stadia for some early season games, and watching what is likely to be the Sacramento Kings last ever road game in their history. Strangely, Mrs. Cassini doesn't share the same love of sports or sense of history, choosing to spend the time with friends and family. Very odd.

Back to the Sacramento Kings, and it's looking increasingly probable that they will start next season in Anaheim, their sixth city after Rochester, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Omaha and Sacramento, and reclaim their original Royals moniker since there's already one 'Kings' team in the greater LA area. History repeating itself in a way, as they lost the Royals name after moving to Kansas City where there was already a 'Royals' baseball team.

A few days ago I promised a strategy for the end of the football season, and I'm a man of my word. It's not rocket science, but given the fact that from now until the end of the season is 'silly' season, simply lay all qualifying favourites. I say 'qualifying' because as I mentioned last December, the value on teams at 1.3 or less is in backing them, not laying.

In the top five European leagues last season, laying qualifying favourites from April on would have given 46.3 points profit from 315 matches, 14.7% ROI.

It's a simple, low-risk strategy, which should soothe the frustrations of spending hours poring over stats only to see everything go out the window with teams giving less than their all. I can't believe I give this stuff away!

Who Needs Jim?

Robin asks "Just wondering if you had seen the Chievo v Sampdoria draw price for the game scheduled this Sunday?". I actually hadn't looked at this weekend's games yet, but thanks for 'drawing' my attention to it Robin. With over £300k traded already - compare with Lecce v Udinese at a little over £3k, one might suspect that we may see two teams not exactly battling it out this weekend.

While Chievo are probably safe, Sampdoria are less so, with eight defeats in the last ten matches, but remaining home games against two of the likely to-be-relegated teams, plus an away game at the hapless and doomed Bari, a draw may well suit both teams. Sampdoria drew their first four away games this season, and once since, and have failed to score in the last seven away matches (including that one recent draw). 0-0 has traded at 3.4, 1-1 at 3.0 and 2-2 at 3.05.

You can do your head in going back and forth over whether to back the draw or lay it, but it often helps to look at history. Over the past two seasons, there have been three Chievo home games with a suspect draw price. In 2008-09, they drew 0-0 with Bologna, while in 2009-10 they drew 1-1 with Catania and 0-0 with Parma. Of the other six 'dodgy' games in the last two seasons, 'only' 50% finished as draws. I shall let you 'draw' your own conclusions from those stats.

Perhaps not surprising that it's the lower to mid-table teams that seem most often involved in these 'settle for a point' games. Chievo Verona, Catania and Bologna most often appear while Udinese in seasons with nothing to play for have a couple to their name.

Another thing, since it's reasonable to assume the referee will be aware of the situation, wouldn't you think he'd want to award a late penalty to someone, just to piss the teams off?

On a similar topic, the possibility of a ban on in-play matches may be of interest to some of you:

The media across Europe is reporting extensively on speculation that football governing bodies FIFA and UEFA are seriously considering a ban on one of the most popular betting channels – in-game wagering.

Both bodies claim that the increasingly popular pastime of betting whilst games are in progress represents a bigger threat of manipulation than the more conventional gambling on results.

Marco Villiger, head of legal affairs at world soccer’s ruling body FIFA, and Gianni Infantino, general secretary of European counterparts UEFA, expressed concern this week over betting on things like the next free kick, throw-in or yellow card.

“These live bets are a problem,” said Villiger. “It’s very easy to manipulate if you contact a player and tell him to kick the ball into touch at the start.

“You would be able to bet on that and it would be difficult to decide if it is an irregular bet or not. We will have to think about whether we should continue to offer such live bets,” he added.

Infantino said the soccer authorities planned to consult with operators, noting: “This is something we want to address. It’s something we haven’t focused on too much since we were always focusing on the result, then you realise it switches much more from the result to the live betting. This is much more difficult to monitor. This is people betting on the next goal, the next throw-in, the next yellow card.”

UEFA president Michel Platini has described match-fixing as the biggest scourge facing the sport, and noted that FIFA is already investigating two friendly internationals played in the Turkey recently where a total of seven penalties were awarded, one of which was taken twice when the first effort was saved.

Familiarity

I read an investment article recently that suggested investors are taking the buy-local movement a little too much too heart, with the typical household having about 30% of its portfolio invested in shares head-quartered locally.

Many investors believe that local knowledge gives them an edge when it comes to investing, but data proves them wrong. A recent study found that investors with a local bias tend not to come out ahead, even when betting on small companies that aren't widely followed by analysts. Apparently, investors too often confuse "something familiar with something safe".

Another parallel between business and sports investing, at least for me. As I wrote not too long ago, one of the hardest things for me when I'm trading a game is to trade a game with a completely open mind. While I should base decisions solely on what is taking place in front of me, it's very hard to - for example - erase the memory of the game last week when one of the teams collapsed, or had a stunning comeback, or whatever. Trading is not a time to embrace the warm, fuzzy feelings you may have about a team or a player, however much you made from them in previous contests.

Something familiar is not to be confused with something safe when it comes to money, although arguably, it's a different matter when it comes to sex. I'm pretty sure it was Mark Twain who said "Familiarity breeds contempt - and children".

NBA Daily Picks Added

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks found a winner after four blank weeks as Aldershot Town drew with Accrington Stanley 1-1 at 3.25. His other picks of Cheltenham Town v Gillingham (3.3) finished 1-2 and Hereford United v Crewe Alexandra (3.40) finished 1-0, but with backing draws, one winner in three will guarantee you a healthy profit.

The third entry in the Cassini Portfolio, behind Football Elite and Stock Lemon is NBA Daily Picks. I'll be updating these results over at Gold All Over in the form of screenshots, since blogger is somewhat inadequate for displaying tables. Football Elite's results are already updated on their own website, so I'll not bother with those, especially as I am selective about which of their selections to back.

The Stock Lemon and NBA Daily Picks are for small stakes, with the reduction of the Premium Charge the long-term goal. Just a bit of fun really. The NBA Daily Picks uses a progressive staking system (named 33% System) which I am not generally a fan of, but for small stakes if you like this more aggressive approach, when used on selections in the 1.9 to 2.1 range, it's not going to prove too expensive.

Stopping at a profit, or after six bets, the stakes start at 1 unit, and rise to 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x and 12.5x (unless the final bet will be unable to make up earlier losses).

The NBA Daily Tips have a reported record of WIN-LOSE: 67-64-1 (51.15%), with the 33% System in profit by 8.75 units, while Level Stakes shows a loss of 0.30 units.

With the NBA season coming to an end, and the baseball season fast approaching, I'm on the lookout for site offering MLB selections to carry me through the summer.

Graeme Dand (Nap)

After reading what is quite possibly the longest post in recorded blog history by Graeme Dand, aka The Football Analyst, I looked at an earlier comment of mine over there to see if Graeme had replied. My comment was that I planned to read from the beginning some time soon - Graeme's reply?:

Cheers Cassini. It won't take too long to catch up with historical posts. I tried my best to not write too much this season as I wasn't sure the blog would last until Christmas, let alone the end of the season!

Yeah, well if that's Graeme's idea of 'not writing too much', I sure hope he doesn't get the writing bug any time soon. I had to take a short nap in the middle of that last one, and at my age that's something I try to avoid, in case I don't wake up from it.

When Bots Go Wild

The draw in the Serie B Padova v Atalanta game yesterday, traded pre-game at a slightly suspicious 1.5, with over half a million pounds on that outcome, so hardly a surprise that the game finished 1-1.

Football Elite's poor run continued with Belgium overturning Austria 2-0 on Friday, and their official ROI is now down to 2.6% on the season. I don't usually bet on Internationals, and this was no exception, so I ducked a loser there.

Some bizarre goings on in the College Basketball game between Arizona and Connecticut, or rather after the game. Connecticut had won the game, but the market wasn't immediately suspended, something that's not unusual. After the 1.01 was swept, some more appeared, then some at 1.02, then 1.03 and it appeared that money was appearing incrementally up to 1.2. As an experiment I put in a small back at 1.67, the best on the lay side, and it was taken. Unfortunately for me, I have never asked for the default maximum exposure of £5,000 to be raised, so I was all-in too low. But for once, free money really was free money.

Patient Speculation came up with the idea of a Portfolio 'Lite', and I thought I might unashamedly copy it. I started last night using Stock Lemon, who were on a roll during the Sweet Sixteen stage of the NCAA Tournament. They went 1 out of 2 today, missing out by 1/2 point on the previously mentioned U Conn game, as they won by 2, not the 2 1/2 I needed, but the winner (Butler +4) was at 2.12 so I'm happy. Not that the PC will be a problem next week after I got my fingers burned earlier this week!

On Tilt In Iowa

An interesting article by Katie Connolly on the possibility of online poker being legalised in some US States on the BBC page today. Iowa, Florida, California and Nevada are all mentioned as among the first wave, and for anyone who has spent time in the US, the presence of Iowa in that list is a little odd - I guess money talks.

There is also an interesting mention of poker being a game of skill and strategy, rather than a game of chance, something that would also apply to sports betting and trading. I liked the quote too, that "Poker players are motivated by patience and skill, not compulsion".

Here's the article in full:

Each year, an estimated 10 million Americans participate in an activity that is ostensibly illegal: online poker.

In recent years, the US Congress has done its best to prohibit online poker.

While it has not made online poker an outright criminal activity, it has passed legislation setting up a strict system outlawing financial transactions related to the game.

That has led to a proliferation of offshore gaming sites reaping the benefits of a multi-million dollar industry.

But that might be about to change, if cash-strapped states have anything to say about it.

Moves are afoot in Iowa, Florida, California and Nevada to legalise online poker, in part to help close yawning budget gaps.

In regulating internet poker, state and federal authorities could potentially rake in $3bn (£1.9bn) a year. In Iowa alone, the tax revenue could be in the order of $35m (£22m) per year.

And, proponents argue, they could mandate consumer protections for players, who these days must deal with often shadowy foreign entities in order to play.

But opponents of legalisation are ready for a fight.

Social conservatives generally worry about the effect of easily accessible gambling in the home, particularly its allure for problem gamblers.

They decry the degenerative effect they believe online gambling has on families, with parents spending more time gambling on the sofa than paying attention to their home life.

Les Bernal, executive director of the Stop Predatory Gambling group, sees an unholy alliance between government and the gaming industry.

"It's not like average citizens are calling up the government saying 'we want more places to lose money'," he told the BBC.

"Government, in partnership with the million dollar gambling business, is actively encouraging people to lose money."

He calls gambling "the most predatory industry in America", arguing that the business model depends on addicted or heavily indebted individuals losing large amounts.

"Instead of putting casinos on Main Street, you are essentially putting one into every home office and dorm room in America, 24 hours a day," he said.

But poker enthusiasts across the country tend to make a distinction between poker and other forms of gambling.

Poker is a game of skill and strategy, not a matter of chance like the humble slot machine, they argue.

Poker rewards those who dedicate time to learning the mathematical, social and strategic intricacies of the game, in a way that a roll of the dice does not.

John Pappas, executive director of the Poker Players Alliance (PPA), jokes that there is no such thing as the world's greatest lottery player.

He also notes that poker is the only peer-to-peer casino game. Players bet against each other, not the house.

For that reason, he says, the profitability of online poker is not reliant on people losing lots of money in the way that roulette is, for example.

Online sites tend to make their money by taking a small proportion of bets placed. If money is lost, it goes to another player rather than the house.

Mr Pappas also argues that poker is not the sort of quick win or lose game where compulsive or desperate players believe they can place a fast bet and win in a heartbeat.

"Because poker is a game of skill, it is the outcome of the performance of the individual player that determines whether you win or lose," he said.

"Poker players are motivated by patience and skill, not compulsion."

Hogwash, says Keith Whyte, executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG).

In his line of work, he says, drawing a distinction between poker and other forms of gambling is "pretty ridiculous".

"The reason poker is popular, exciting and profitable is because it's gambling," he said.

NCPG is completely neutral on the issue of online poker - in its view, addicted gamblers have a problem regardless of the forum in which they play.

But if online poker is legalised, Mr Whyte sees important opportunities for regulations that could help prevent problem gamblers getting in too deep.

He points to the UK as a leader in policing online gambling for the protection of players. There, sites are required to verify identities, link to help services for addicts and provide support for those services.

Following the British lead, he is lobbying American lawmakers to ensure that regulations mandate things like deposit limits - where a player can specify the amount he or she is willing to spend in a given day or week so they do not get too far into debt - and self-exclusion rules, where an individual can ban him or herself from a site for a period of time.

He also suggests cooling-off periods when players reach their limits, and wants to see protections against fraud and player collusion.

Mr Whyte says there are more opportunities to monitor problem behaviour in online poker than, for example, when somebody walks into a betting agency to wager on horse racing.

The PPA is somewhat wary of the push by individual states to legalise online poker.

State-based laws would only legalise games within that state. But for sites to attract players, they need to offer lots of games - hundreds - at all times of the day and night, with different buy-ins and skill levels.

The PPA would prefer national legislation.

Mr Pappas is hopeful that, after several aborted attempts, Congress will act on online poker this year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the leading Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, are leading the charge.

"There's a recognition that the status quo is untenable," Mr Pappas says.

"It's a growing industry, with jobs and revenue and it is all based overseas. To the extent that there are consumer protection issues, there is no US oversight."

But perhaps more important to Mr Pappas is the game's quintessential American-ness. He fears that in shifting from the kitchen table to the computer table, opponents have sullied the game's cultural history.

"Americans watch poker on television. The vast majority have played with their parents, kids or friends," he says. "It's a game that encapsulates the American spirit. It's part of Americana."

There was also a side-bar from Andy Bloch, professional poker champion, who said:

Online poker helped me fine-tune my game a lot because you play so many more hands and you have a record, a complete hand history, saved on your computer. You can go back and look at your results and study individual hands and identify weaknesses in your game.

Every 10 years or so there is a new wave of poker players. The internet is the newest incarnation. Because in the online world you can play so many hands, you don't have physical tells, and because you can play multiple hands at a time, there are more players who play a much more mechanical game - closer to game theory - than there have been in the past.

The libertarian in me would like to see all online gambling legalised, but online poker is different. The house has no stake in who wins or loses. So the house is going to actually want people to get better and treat it more as entertainment or an educational pastime, not just as a way to try to get money from you.

Their incentive is not to get you to lose. Their incentive is to get you to enjoy playing.

Peaks And Valleys

A good comment from modestly named Average Guy, who in response to my comment that "At the end of the day, if you're the sort of person who has problems with discipline, you're unlikely to honestly report all your bets anyway." wrote this:

As usual very perceptive and accurate. My ranting BLOG stemmed from he belief that blogging would impose self discipline, how wrong was I? I don't report profits / losses any more as my selective amnesia meant I omitted the trades I preferred to forget. Don't know how your writing style has evolved as I'm a recent convert but further evolution is not necessary. Great work congrats on the 3 years.

The timing was almost prescient, since it coincided with one of my bigger disasters, and while I don't like to discuss numbers, either profits or losses, it occurred to me that readers of my blog possibly get the impression that I make steady profits each day, with barely a hiccup. In fact, while most days are profitable, those days are interspersed with the occasional disaster (defined here as a four figure loss). If you count the 'loss' of £1,400 I mentioned in the last post, I have now achieved the rare distinction of back-to-back disasters with the latest shown in the screenshot above. Fortunately, rare indeed, with the last time being May 2008 when I hit three disasters in four days, but it's at times like these when you look at the big picture and realise it's not so bad. I'm back to where I was on 7 March, so that's two wasted weeks in a way, but a lesson in sensible staking.

Yes, it's annoying, and there's always that feeling of 'if only' you hadn't bet, but you have to look at all the other days and see that 'if only' you hadn't bet on those days either, you'd be far worse off. If that statement isn't true, then you're not finding value. I really would prefer a smooth daily profit, but betting isn't like that.

I almost need the occasional slap on the wrist to stop me getting carried away. To use a topical allegory, in the same way that the further into distant memory the last tsunami was, the more we think it less likely there will be another one. While I prefer my reminders to be a little more gentle, in retrospect I was a little greedy.

I've been here before, and the process is that I scale back for a few days while I rebuild confidence and balance, then hit a new high, increase stakes, and inevitably, sooner or later, take another hit.

Remind me again - what was it I said about Thursdays a few days ago?

Wosing Or Linning?

Thanks for all the comments on the third anniversary post. The blog rested for a couple of days, enjoying the moment, but now it’s back for a fourth year of interesting insights, fascinating facts, titillating trivia and contemporary commentary, and much, much more.

Back to the comments, and Graeme Dand, aka The Football Analyst, left a comment, and his blog has been added to the blog roll on the right. He was quite right in that I didn’t know he was now blogging again, but having had a quick look, I now know what the reference to System 8-22 in The Portfolio Investor's blog post was all about. Graeme mentions that he has read every single post since the blogs inception, which no doubt is a big factor in his success these days.

Mark made an interesting comment. He mentioned that my running (jogging) might be a secret to keeping the blog (pun intended) running, and that the time spent in the solitude this activity provides is a source for ideas. It’s actually only in the last few months that I have been running with any frequency, and even then usually only two or three times a week. After two knee surgeries, I have to baby it somewhat, but yes, I do often find myself thinking about ideas for the blog as I struggle for oxygen. Running is a great stress reliever, and frees up the mind like nothing else. There are too many distractions at the gym for my liking, and cycling requires a level of awareness of one’s surroundings that running doesn’t need, so in my opinion, a run or walk in a scenic area takes some beating.

HCE's blog is also a stayer, with over 1,000 posts and on the narrower theme of 2-year-old horses, that's quite impressive!

And thanks again to everyone else who took the time to comment.

I mentioned that my next post would reveal a profitable strategy for the closing weeks of the football season, but I need to delay this for a few days. I want to look at a few leagues other than the two I used it in last season, and see just how brilliant a system it is before I put it out there complete with ROIs. Be patient – we have a break this weekend with international games that really don’t set the pulse racing (something else that running is good for).

Now, did I win today, or lose £1,400? Earlier today, in round figures, I made a profit of £200 on the early morning Los Angeles Clippers v Washington Wizards game. It was late on in one of those games where the market just couldn’t get away from making the Clippers, favoured by 13.5 on the handicap, big favourites in the Match Odds markets even though the game was close. Over the years, backing the ‘dog in these games is a long-term winning strategy. As I have written before, if two teams are separated by two or three points after three quarters of the game has been played, then on the night, there is not much to choose between them. When the Wizards finally went ahead in the closing stages of regulation time, and I could lay off at 1.3, I was sitting very pretty with £1,000 green all over. The Clippers hit a three-pointer to tie the game and send it to overtime, at the start of which, the Clippers were around 1.5. Why?

So again I layed the Clippers, and at the start of the second overtime period, I was now 1,600 green all over with the Clippers again too short at 1.5. Unfortunately, this time I got caught out. Despite being, in my opinion, appalling value at 1.5, and with their two stars in foul trouble, the Clippers scored first, and won going away in the end, and my £6k green on the Wizards never made it to my balance, and while £200 at the start of my involvement would have been acceptable, having at one time been green to the tune of eight times as much, the usual sweetness of the win had a slightly sour taste to it.

It’s all about the expectation. When I’m in a hole and somehow manage to emerge from a market with a small green, or even a small red, I’m a lot happier than I am when winning £200 after having been ahead by much more earlier. A draw in football is always a more pleasing result when coming from behind. If you get ahead, you can’t help but start to start thinking in terms of that outcome being the final one, and similarly if you get behind, there’s an acceptance that this is just not going to be your day. When the final outcome differs to that, you perceive the result from a different perspective.

Anyway, while things could have been better, it just wasn’t to be today, but with these types of bets, the fact that these bets are value means they are profitable long-term. Sadly that doesn’t mean they’re profitable every time. I expect too much.

Happy Birthday Blog

This blog has now been running for three years, with a total of 1,003 posts before today. Not all have been hugely interesting admittedly, but the other 1,000 have been...

There're not too many of us who have been around for three years in blog world, but my first two commenters are still around - Graeme Dand, who courtesy of The Portfolio Investor and the comments section is alive and well and doing very nicely right now:

And finally, what news of Graeme Dand - The Football Analyst - who was tantalisingly close to the jackpot in the 'Racing Post's' Cheltenham Festival competition? Well, the lad done good, as they say. Just not quite good enough! (but darned good all the same). He finished second, just five points off the winner. Gutted for him to be honest but he wins a decent sum for his efforts. If you're reading this Graeme, hard luck, mate - now get back to work with those footie systems and whatever it is you've won, dare you to stick it all on the next System 8-22 selection. You know it makes sense.

The second comment I received was from Mark Iverson, who still blogs and three years ago wrote:

It's nice to see a new blog out there.

I'll be interested to see if your writing style changes over the next 12 months as it's not as easy as it looks (at least to me anyway!)

It's not for me to judge whether my writing style changed in the first 12 months, or even in the first 36 months, but if pressed, I wouldn't say it has. I've certainly had more positive feedback than I have negative over the years, and being thick-skinned, or just thick, helps.

Has writing a blog helped my discipline as some people seem to find writing a blog does? No - absolutely not. Pre-blog, I had 5 losing months in 31. Post-blog, 6 in 36 (barring a disaster in the next few days), but it's not just that. Since the majority of my profits come from trading in-play, the last thing on my mind in the heat of the moment is my blog, and besides, discipline is not a concern anyway. At the end of the day, if you're the sort of person who has problems with discipline, you're unlikely to honestly report all your bets anyway.

And so a fourth year begins with no plans for anything too different. I'll continue with a mix of topics that for the most part have something to do with trading and betting, and which seem to be reasonably well received. The total hits should reach a quarter of a million in about three months. Not too shabby.

Just to make sure you all come back, in the next post, I'll have a strategy for the final part of the football season that showed an ROI in excess of 15% last season in the EPL.

Richmond, VA

A mixed weekend on the football, with the one strong draw Sunderland v Liverpool finishing 0-2, and the home picks going one from two. The draw came through at 2.9 for Bologna v Genoa, and I picked up a few quid betting on Unders in the Chelsea v Manchester City game, and lost a few after laying Napoli v Cagliari, a little unluckily as I was typing in the bet at 1-1 when the second Napoli goal went in.

Bologna were one of Football Elite's picks yesterday, but with the draw suspiciously low, this was not a game I wanted to be away from the draw on.

More small profits from basketball, although I have the feeling that I probably missed out on profits elsewhere by watching these very enjoyable games. We don't have the college level of sports in this country, ('the' Boat Race really doesn't count), but in the USA it is hugely popular, especially basketball and football. With few exceptions, (Green Bay, Wisconsin being the best known), smaller towns in the USA do not have major league sports teams, with half (25) of the states having none, another four having just one, and in many areas, college sports, and indeed high-school sports, is all there is.

Take Virginia for example - the most populous state with no major league sports teams, but the city of Richmond (sister city Richmond-upon-Thames) alone has not just one team, but two in the last ('Sweet') Sixteen of the NCAA tournament this week. I'll bet not a lot of people knew that.

On the subject of liquidity on these college games, it was commented on the Betfair forum that someone "got down for over 100k on the Notre Dame side". I suspect it may be this 'lady'. God works in mysterious ways, you can bet. Speaking of which, what is the point of holding up a sign at Stamford Bridge saying "Pray For Japan"? Do they think that their omnipotent god is somehow unaware of the trouble that, presumably, he caused? It makes no sense.

ASHE Benchmark

The results from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) survey 2010 were released on 8th December and showed that the median weekly pay for full-time employees in the UK in the year to April 2010 was £499. Median earnings of full-time male employees were £538 per week in April 2010; for women the median was £439.

It’s always fun playing with these numbers, and that £538 per week figure for us men, works out an annual salary (gross) of £27,976 which according to The Salary Calculator nets out at £21,385, or £411.26 per week.

If you are a full-time trader and trade seven days a week, then to match Mr. Median, you need to make close to £60 a day - £58.76 to be precise, or if you’re that rarity in the trading world, i.e. female, you can be Ms. Median by making just £49.14 a day. Life is so much easier as a woman, as I keep telling Mrs. Cassini.

How easy an individual finds it to make an average of around £60 a day will, of course, vary, but I doubt that anyone serious about sports investing would find this unachievable.

It's only of academic interest anyway. If you are full-time trading, then it's a benchmark to measure yourself against, and not much else, and if trading is just a hobby and you already have a full-time job, then any profit at all is just icing on the cake.

The arrival of betting exchanges has certainly been a positive influence on my life, and not just financially. As with any second job, it's not just the extra money that is made, but it's also less time that you are out and about spending money. Back in my twenties, when my social life meant that I was spending most evenings in the local pub, my solution was to start working there. I was paid the princely sum of £10 a session, but the money I saved from not being on the other side of the bar made that worth twice as much. Plus, I got to keep the social aspect of my life there, something that I don't have too much of these days!

Sunday Morning

After no strong draws at all for Saturday, there's only the one today which is Sunderland v Liverpool. Home picks are Monaco (2.1) v Nancy and Sporting de Gijon (2.02) v Almeria.

I mentioned earlier in the week that this is the time of year when certain leagues tend to have strange draw prices, and while it's not hugely out of line, the draw price in the Bologna v Genoa match is lower than might be expected at 2.92.

Bari v Chievo Verona is of interest too. Chievo have underperformed for five games in a row, but Bari are pretty poor with just one win since September. If they are to win a second, this is their chance, and they can be backed at 2.8. I have this as a weak draw, which is at a short 3.15. I have the Under 2.5 goals priced at 1.71.

The first two rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament a year ago cost me over £3k, and while there are still eight games to go today, so far this year has not seen a repeat performance. A small profit ensures that the rolling 52-week average took a nice jump. On the subject of my post on the NCAA tournament, Ferenc wrote:

I apologize to the ugly comment, I do not know why I wrote it, was written in the heat of passion. Forgive me.

No apology is necessary. Presumably the comment in Croatian was the offensive one, because I didn't see anything ugly about the two I understood! Questioning the liquidity was certainly a valid comment. It's not been as good as I would have liked, but when the field is down to 16 next week, the games should be more competitive - although the beauty of the tournament is that games are often a lot closer than the market expects pre-game. Already one of the four number one seeds (Pittsburgh) are out after losing to last year's runner-up Butler.

A stupid loss on the Rugby for me yesterday. Betfair's commission free outage apology offer was pretty useless to me since Cheltenham does nothing for me, but I did use the Ireland v England game for a PC reducing bet. Unfortunately, I don't know much about Rugby apparently, and the bet was a bank reducing bet instead. An offer from Betfair to refund all Premium Charges since their inception would have been much better.

While one winner from two in the Bundesliga gave me a small profit there, Aston Villa were a big disappointment in losing to Wolverhampton Wanderers. Football Elite had my two German picks as well as Lorient who I had already discarded. I traded the Manchester United v Bolton game for a profit, as I felt United were too short at 1.44. I had them priced at 1.61, with the Under at 1.62.

You would think Getafe would have enough problems with the NATO attacks to concentrate on football, but they put up a good performance at Barcelona, going down by the odd goal in three.

Award Winner

The awards keep coming. The latest is the Patient Speculation Quotation of the Week Award which, as with Nobel Prizes, presumably comes with a large cheque. It's not immediately apparent how much I am in line for, but even if it's only a few hundred, it all helps.

The winning line? “Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment“ by Jim Rohn (I'll split the prize with him).

ferenc had a couple of comments on my March Madness post, first this one:

I only recently following this excellent blog, and I recognize myself in many texts. You are doing a great job. I see a lot trading basketball - NBA, NCAAB ... I'm interested in how you play or how you recognize when it's time to get into trade or bet?

Then this one

a ti si neka velika manga u pizdu materinu, pazi da ne bi odgovorio slučajno na upit jednog običnog smrtnika... nek mu netko prevede ako hoće, njemu Direktoru Svemira. ispričavam se što sam Vam se obratio Vaše Veličanstvo. bljuv

and finally

Where is the liquidity? I do not see any money at NCAAB market

In reverse order, the liquidity is there in some games, but with the seeding arrangements, the first couple of rounds always see mismatches and when the handicap is 23.5, there won't be a lot of money sloshing around. Closer games there's more money around. I've managed to lose £150 tonight with no trouble! The second comment I'll need some time for. I've not been to Croatia for a few years (Split, and the island of Hvar - very nice) and my Croatian is a little rusty. As for the first question on when to enter the markets, it's when I think they are wrong. My triggers can be pre-game prices are off, or more usually when the market has overreacted to a run by one team. Basketball is all about momentum, and when it turns, it turns fast, and 'big' leads vanish fast. Look for foul trouble, key players due a rest, teams coming out of a time-out and other things that you will learn by watching lots of games.