Thursday, 24 March 2011

Wosing Or Linning?

Thanks for all the comments on the third anniversary post. The blog rested for a couple of days, enjoying the moment, but now it’s back for a fourth year of interesting insights, fascinating facts, titillating trivia and contemporary commentary, and much, much more.

Back to the comments, and Graeme Dand, aka The Football Analyst, left a comment, and his blog has been added to the blog roll on the right. He was quite right in that I didn’t know he was now blogging again, but having had a quick look, I now know what the reference to System 8-22 in The Portfolio Investor's blog post was all about. Graeme mentions that he has read every single post since the blogs inception, which no doubt is a big factor in his success these days.

Mark made an interesting comment. He mentioned that my running (jogging) might be a secret to keeping the blog (pun intended) running, and that the time spent in the solitude this activity provides is a source for ideas. It’s actually only in the last few months that I have been running with any frequency, and even then usually only two or three times a week. After two knee surgeries, I have to baby it somewhat, but yes, I do often find myself thinking about ideas for the blog as I struggle for oxygen. Running is a great stress reliever, and frees up the mind like nothing else. There are too many distractions at the gym for my liking, and cycling requires a level of awareness of one’s surroundings that running doesn’t need, so in my opinion, a run or walk in a scenic area takes some beating.

HCE's blog is also a stayer, with over 1,000 posts and on the narrower theme of 2-year-old horses, that's quite impressive!

And thanks again to everyone else who took the time to comment.

I mentioned that my next post would reveal a profitable strategy for the closing weeks of the football season, but I need to delay this for a few days. I want to look at a few leagues other than the two I used it in last season, and see just how brilliant a system it is before I put it out there complete with ROIs. Be patient – we have a break this weekend with international games that really don’t set the pulse racing (something else that running is good for).

Now, did I win today, or lose £1,400? Earlier today, in round figures, I made a profit of £200 on the early morning Los Angeles Clippers v Washington Wizards game. It was late on in one of those games where the market just couldn’t get away from making the Clippers, favoured by 13.5 on the handicap, big favourites in the Match Odds markets even though the game was close. Over the years, backing the ‘dog in these games is a long-term winning strategy. As I have written before, if two teams are separated by two or three points after three quarters of the game has been played, then on the night, there is not much to choose between them. When the Wizards finally went ahead in the closing stages of regulation time, and I could lay off at 1.3, I was sitting very pretty with £1,000 green all over. The Clippers hit a three-pointer to tie the game and send it to overtime, at the start of which, the Clippers were around 1.5. Why?

So again I layed the Clippers, and at the start of the second overtime period, I was now 1,600 green all over with the Clippers again too short at 1.5. Unfortunately, this time I got caught out. Despite being, in my opinion, appalling value at 1.5, and with their two stars in foul trouble, the Clippers scored first, and won going away in the end, and my £6k green on the Wizards never made it to my balance, and while £200 at the start of my involvement would have been acceptable, having at one time been green to the tune of eight times as much, the usual sweetness of the win had a slightly sour taste to it.

It’s all about the expectation. When I’m in a hole and somehow manage to emerge from a market with a small green, or even a small red, I’m a lot happier than I am when winning £200 after having been ahead by much more earlier. A draw in football is always a more pleasing result when coming from behind. If you get ahead, you can’t help but start to start thinking in terms of that outcome being the final one, and similarly if you get behind, there’s an acceptance that this is just not going to be your day. When the final outcome differs to that, you perceive the result from a different perspective.

Anyway, while things could have been better, it just wasn’t to be today, but with these types of bets, the fact that these bets are value means they are profitable long-term. Sadly that doesn’t mean they’re profitable every time. I expect too much.


Average Guy said...

"At the end of the day, if you're the sort of person who has problems with discipline, you're unlikely to honestly report all your bets anyway."
As usual very perceptive and accurate. My ranting BLOG stemmed from he belief that blogging would impose self discipline, how wrong was I? I don't report profits / losses any more as my selective amnesia meant I omitted the trades I preferred to forget. Don't know how your writing style has evolved as I'm a recent convert but further evolution is not necessary. Great work congrats on the 3 years.

Graeme Dand said...

One thing that hasn't changed during the 3 years Cassini has been your sharp wit and humour!

I'll forward you 10% of my profits this season as a show of gratitude on my behalf.

Thanks for the blog link.