Thursday, 10 March 2011

Fallacious


It's quite incredible that anyone claiming to be a 'betting expert' would waste their time, and the time of others, on promoting a scam like this one, sent to me by matt@betfairtradingexpert.com :

Subject: A Good Little Earner

I hope lady luck has been shining on you since we last spoke :-)

I have just discovered a brilliant new roulette software program, that will help give you an edge over the casinos.

Although it's extremely simple and easy to use, it's very powerful, and a 'must have' tool for any online roulette player like yourself.

You can find out more about here:

http://www.betfairtradingexpert.com/recommendedbetting.php?site=RouletteSniper

It's really cool and allows to you track multiple potential bets at the same time. It then gives you an alert when your system bet comes up, and tells you what amount to bet with.

That might not sound too impressive, but think about this...

Lets say you had a system where you only bet when a particular dozen hasn't come in, for say...10 times.

Now, it can be pretty time consuming waiting for this to happen, but the real pain is the all the bets you end up missing!

Lets say you are monitoring the first dozen of numbers 1 to 12.

Now, while you have your eyes glued waiting for that particular dozen to miss 10 times, you don't spot all the other dozens and column bets that have not spun
in for 10, 12 or even 15 times+ themselves!

Without help from a powerful tracking tool like this, it's virtually impossible to keep track of all these potential bets.

And it gets even better...

It doesn't just track dozens and columns bets!

You tell it what bets you want it to track and how many spins it needs to miss, and the software will alert you when a potential bet comes up automatically.

You could be tracking... odds/evens, high/low, black/red, dozens/columns, lines, corners, splits plus more ...all at the same time, with minimum effort!

Imagine the edge this is going to give you, not to mention the amount of time it will save you!

Amazingly, this thing is dirt cheap and I was really surprised when I saw how much it was. Most players will probably make back what it costs during their first session using it.
Wow! It all seems too good to be true, although on closer inspection it doesn't surprise me at all that it is dirt cheap. I tried imagining the 'edge this will give me', and it is always negative. Has Matt never heard of Gambler's fallacy, (or the Monte Carlo fallacy, or fallacy of the maturity of chances)? One presumes he's really a little sharper than that, in which case he does himself no favours whatsoever by trying to sell such rubbish to the less well-informed. And why are these scams always so poorly written?

1 comment:

Steve said...

I remember some years ago making £120 from a free £200 bonus, by playing through the turnover limit.But is that above some kind of martingale system where you would double your bets, well mr betfairtradingexpert will have to stop there because the house rules and table limits would prevent it from working