Friday, 11 March 2011

Thursday's The Worst Day


I have had fourteen losing days this year, and I just worked out that six of them have come on a Thursday. Given that there have only been ten Thursdays so far in 2011, that's a pretty high strike rate. A four figure loss yesterday means that the Premium Charge may well not be a problem for a second week, only this time avoided by a method that I would rather not use.

Looking back a year, and it's a similar pattern. I lost on nine of the first eighteen Thursdays of 2010, including two painful losses of over £2k. Not good.

Why are Thursdays so bad? Is it just a statistical oddity or is there more to it?

One reason must be the general lack of sport in general, with little football, and some losses on sports that I clearly don't have an edge on. Super League Rugby for one. That's been a loser so far this season.

In the US, college basketball goes crazy at this time of year, with conference tournaments and then 'March Madness' (aka the NCAA Tournament which starts next Tuesday), and 'madness' was certainly an apt name for it for one of the big losses I mentioned earlier. If I remember it rightly, it was a case of betting too much in an illiquid market.

I suspect that the main reason is that there is little NBA action on Thursdays, with just two or three games most weeks, two of which are televised nationwide serially.

Does form go out of the window when the world is watching? It might be interesting to look back on the results. My loss last night was on the Phoenix Suns who ALWAYS beat the Denver Nuggets at home, well, at least they did for twelve games in a row until my money on them. Having not lost at home to the Nuggets since April of 2004, they waited until my money was on board before, not just losing, but getting thrashed. And no, that wasn't why I backed the Suns, but I was pleased to have that statistic on my side at the time.

The games chosen are selected because they are likely to be competitive. Good for trading in theory, but with just the one game (or two), I run into the same problems I have with play-off games - too many traders concentrated on one game or two, meaning value is harder to find than on quieter games. While I tell myself that I'm not taking poor value, the numbers are telling me that might not be an accurate statement.

When I get some time, I shall look at this in more detail.

Monday ain't a fun day
Tuesday's a goof day
Wednesdays are frenzy
Thursday's the worst day
Friday is great
'Cause I can hardly wait until the weekend
- Here Comes The Weekend - Dave Edmunds

3 comments:

gary said...

Hi Cassini,
I've been following your blog (along with hundreds more i'm sure) for a few months now and always find it great reading. Funny,insightful,random, great obscure titbits, keeps us all interested(i think!,-me anyway).
One thing i've wanted to ask you about regards that greatest of attributes required to succeed at this trading/gambling game - DISCIPLINE...!
Have you always had the required discipline/patience when trading,which may be part of your make-up in general, or did you have to learn it along the way?
I've withdrawn my funds from Betfair yesterday as i feel the dreaded loss of control creeping in again(after a fairly successful couple of months trading) - not a huge amount but enough that, although i dont need the money at this time i also dont want to blow it all as i, and i'm sure many others have done before.
Anyways, if you had to learn the art of self discipline are there any good books/courses advice you could recommend?
I'm sure it's something that can be taught but My God it's hard.............Keep up the great blog - & take Thursdays off!..

"PLAYING IT SAFE' said...

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"PLAYING IT SAFE' said...

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Dean