Friday, 4 March 2011

Expekter Winner - Or Two

And just like that, we have a winner. Expekter was the first to work out that Murray leads 2-1 in sets, with Roddick winning the third set on a tie-break with the last two points being aces, and then serving four aces to lead the fourth set 1-0. Easy!

On to more serious matters now, and two matches to focus on tonight. Borussia Dortmund v Koln and Lecce v AS Roma.

The ratings have Borussia Dortmund to win by two goals, and priced at 1.39. On Betfair they are currently priced at 1.34/1.35. My model clearly expects less goals than the market does, with the over prices looking very generous, which tells me I am missing something! A lay of Dortmund and a back of Unders looks to be the opening play here, and when the NBA game in London starts, I'll be trading out and concentrating on that.

In Serie A, Lecce v AS Roma has strong draw written all over it, with a cautionary note that Over looks value to me, (not a good sign for a draw), and Serie A is by far the worst performing 'strong draw' league at just over 27% (versus 35% across all five top leagues).

For anyone who rarely watches the sport, today is a good opportunity to see why, to my mind at least, the NBA is the best game for trading. The latest example of how you can't go far wrong laying at short prices was last night when the Miami Heat had a commanding 24 point lead v Orlando Magic and lost. Tonight's game between New Jersey and Toronto may not feature two of the best teams in the league, but for trading, who cares?

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