Monday, 14 March 2011

Drawing Blanks

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks this past weekend went 0/3 (he dipped into League One with no EPL matches on the schedule) as Bournemouth v Southampton, Colchester v MK Dons and Rochdale v Exeter all ended as away wins. His strike rate on these selections is still an impressive 34.83%, which is slightly ahead of my 'strong draws' at 33.59%.

I mentioned before that I would be reducing stakes on Football Elite's selections as they tend to be weaker as we hit March and April time - football's silly season - and that decision has paid off already this weekend.

Getafe v Athletic Bilbao tonight is a weak draw pick. In La Liga, these are hitting at 36.67%, although across all five Major Leagues the rate is a less impressive, though still profitable, 31.49%. If the game is tied at 80' though, with the way my luck is running, a lay of the current correct score might be a smart play! 

As much as I bemoan the irritation of late goals robbing me of rightful winners, I do still think that (selectively of course) backing the draw offers value. The more people who buy into the Lay The Draw system the better, but these people aren't really laying the draw as a result - they are simply hoping for a goal and a trading profit. Who lays the draw as a result? It's really saying "Well, I think someone will win, but I don't know who" which makes no sense to me.

1 comment:

Average Guy said...

I thought that and actually started laying the draw with the intention of trading out before the games started. My logic was that with the lay the draw system being so popular that the odds would drift before the game started. Not a hope, constantly got nailed and lost consistently (not huge amounts but significant to me).