Saturday, 11 December 2010

Drifting And Villa - WBA


It's quite amazing sometimes how much a price on a football match will move in just a few hours. Yesterday's Hannover '96 v Stuttgart game is one example. The back prices early Friday morning were H: 2.44, D: 3.75, A: 3.0, yet 12 hours later the prices were H: 2.72, D: 3.65, A: 2.76, a significant drift on Hamburg. Football Elite made Hamburg a Recommended Bet so the news that the price had drifted so much was a little confusing. In the end, I put in a back at 3.0 which was fortuitously matched just a couple of minutes before Hamburg took the lead, and then got out at half-time. The drift had made me nervous. In the end, Hamburg won 2-1 after Stuttgart had levelled in the 74'.

I had a good comment from Sports Betting Universe on the Aston Villa v West Bromwich Albion game - actually it was a good comment on other things too, so here it is in full:

Always interesting to see what fellow punters are going for this weekend. Here's what I'm on (cue really bad weekend once you post up predictions!)

TOP SELECTIONS (10 points)

Hannover @ 2.50
Freiburg @ 1.95
NAC Breda @ 2.50
Mallorca @ 1.75

RECOMMENDED BETS (5 points)

Hercules @ 2.20
Udinese @ 2.20
Lorient @ 1.91
Kaiserslauten @ 2.50
Brest @ 2.50
Bologna (DOUBLE CHANCE) @ 2.38
Mechelen (DRAW NO BET) @ 2.00
Tottenham (DRAW NO BET) @ 2.10

I do think Mainz look quite tempting at 2.70 on initial viewing but Schalke are beginning to find some good form. They are coming into the match on the back of a 2-0 league win against Bayern Munich, and an impressive 2-1 victory at Benfica midweek. On paper they have one of the best sides in the league and are starting to show it, although league away form is their final hurdle to a full revival. Mainz have been stuttering after a fabulous start so I'm not sure that 2.70 isn't a fair price (but that's the beauty of sports, it's all about opinions and cue a 4-0 win for Mainz!).

I also think Villa are playing woefully at the moment and don't see much value at 2.24. West Brom are not the worst side on the road and are playing with a bit of confidence again after 2 wins on the bounce. Villa have won 1 in the last 10 which was a streaky win against Blackpool Reserves a few weeks back. They also seem to be prone to drawing a lot home so I'd probably lay Villa if anything (again cue Villa 7 West Brom 0!)

Anyway, good luck with your weekend selections. I hope it's winners all round. :-)
With regard to the Villa v WBA game, I think Villa's home form isn't as bad as it seems. Three of the last four have been against three of the Big Four, and they have won three of the other five, drawing the other two v Bolton and Birmingham. Yes, they have had two consecutive wins, but the two games before that were losses to Stoke and Wigan so form is patchy. The basic rating for this is Villa by 0.8, but with form taken into account it is down to 0.62. 2.22 just looks too big to me. Cue Villa 0 West Brom 7!

2 comments:

Sports Bet Universe said...

Thanks for your generous response. I'm glad you read it how I meant it (not being righteous and just offering my opinions on the weekend fixtures). It was a bit hairy on the Hannover selection last night with 15 mins to go but it's always great to start the weekend with a decent priced winner. I was a bit concerned myself when the price was flying up before kick off as you wonder what the reason is!

It's a good point on the Villa form that it's who you're losing to rather than just losing and they have had some tricky matches recently. They traditionally have always been pretty strong at home and there are no doubts they should win this one if they play like they did at home to Man Utd the other week where they were unlucky to not take all 3 points. I do think a few bad defeats can send a team either way though and it will be interesting to see how they respond today. I hope it comes off anyway and Villa win 7-0!

The other bet I had on for Mechelen came unstuck pretty quickly as they conceded an early goal and then had a man sent off after 20 mins. It's a pity as they were unbeaten at home this season before last night and had only lost 1 of the last 16 at home in the league overall. Brugge are not great travellers either. Early sending off's can go either way and last night it was the wrong way!

I've been following the draw system with much interest. It seems your research is producing some really good selections and you might be on to a long term winner. The potential returns are fabulous if you can get it right often enough which seems to be the case.

Sports Bet Universe said...

I posted a list of what I was on this weekend but there were a few more that I was umming and erring about. Nothing I would regard as a top selections but certainly a few prices worth having a look at.

RECOMMENDED BETS (5 points)

Bristol City @ 2.60
Colchester @ 1.83
Athletico Bilbao @ 2.00

RECOMMENDED LAYS (5 points)

Nancy @ 2.15
Caen @ 2.15
Liverpool @ 2.12

I fancy Newcastle to give a decent account of themselves today and it's not unusual for manager's to get some sort of bounce in their first game in charge. Liverpool really don't travel well despite a recent upturn in form and they tend to sit back away from home so they do look a little low at 2.12.