Saturday, 29 March 2014

Le Problème de la France

The deep dive into the state of draws this season continues, and one thing stands out. There is a problem in France.

I mentioned yesterday that a winning or losing system isn't necessarily an indicator that the system is any good. The phrase I used was that a rising tide lifts all boats, which basically means that a sequence of results either above or below the long-term and expected averages can be deceiving. Regarding draws in the top five European leagues, 2013-14 is almost certain to be a season long sequence with draws under represented across the board. One of the advantages of including five leagues is that the results should be less volatile than if you select just one league to follow. This season appears to be an exception with the draw percentages down on both the 5 year and 10 year averages in every league.

Here are the current season numbers and the 10 and 5 year averages:

It looks like the worst league should be England, the best France, but as the post title hints at, this is not the case.  The next screenshot shows this season. The last five full rounds (50 matches each) in each league are shown, with the number of draws and the returns if backing every draw in those 50. 
The "All X" column shows the futility of backing every draw, at least the futility of doing so at Pinnacle Prices, and the other columns show the results of backing the sub 4.0 draws and the performance of the XX Draws.

Finally, Betslayer left a comment suggesting that it is not the total draws that are hurting, but that: 
...surely it has to do with the number of low scoring draws not just draws? (as that is your target area). I have done a lot of research in this area and surprisingly this season is a great one for under 2.5 draws (across 14 European leagues).
Fourteen leagues is a significantly larger pool than the XX Draws 'draw' from, and it appears to be the other nine leagues where his statement that backing 0:0s or 1:1s is working this season. 

In England, Germany, Italy and Spain, the Under 2.5 goal draws are all down on last season, (England 16.3% from 20%, Germany 14.8% from 18.6%, Italy 18% from 20.5% and Spain 15.7% from 16.8%) and in France they are about the same (slightly up at 22.6% over 21.3%).   

1 comment:

Danny Murphy said...

OK I won't be cheeky like yesterday :).

I am trying to think about the importance of the draw figures you have given and I'm not sure how important less draws are.

Thinking about profit and loss, the way you make profit is by the price you bet at being higher than the closing Betfair price.

Say there are 380 matches in the EPL and you are backing a subset of say 150 of them, if there are 20% less draws in total that might not affect you because a lot of those missing draws could be in the range you excluded from your selections. Infact you have questioned this yourself I think.

I'm hardly an expert but I would have thought theoretical gain would be a better indicator than the actual amount of draws. If you are beating closing prices you know you have an edge. Then measure amount bet against the advantage over the closing line.