Saturday, 7 May 2011

Early Bird

It's too late for this season, but I have finally adapted the Elo based ratings spreadsheet to generate, for the most part, reasonable odds for the EPL. The other leagues will need a few more hours of work which will probably be found in the close season. So for now, it's all eyes on the EPL, and a few games I priced up on Thursday morning have significantly shortened since.

Bolton Wanderers were at 1.89 to beat Sunderland, but they are now down to 1.78. I have them priced at 1.74, so the value is gone.

Everton were at 3.0 to beat Manchester City, now down to 2.78. I have them priced at (don't laugh) 1.89 for this game. Everton really aren't that bad, and ranked 6th are rated just behind Manchester City in 5th. Their league position is a little false in my opinion, and 3.0 or anything close represents excellent value.

Newcastle were at 1.99 to beat Birmingham, now down slightly to 1.93, still over my price of 1.74.

Fulham remain at 3.1 to beat Liverpool, value with my odds for Fulham at 2.37, and finally, I have Arsenal priced at 2.43 to win at Stoke, where a lay at 1.75 looks good value.

Being silly season, we shouldn't get too carried away though, and Arsenal, Bolton and Newcastle both qualify for the 'lay-the-favourite' system which has been well researched and reported on by Green Eyed Trader. Manchester City's upcoming FA Cup Final appearance may reduce their focus at Everton, and will Newcastle be too disappointed with just a point versus Birmingham?

It might be worth bringing forward my weekly research by a day or two. With three of the four picks shortening significantly, I could be on to something, but I won't know for sure until I have 100,000 results in my records!

Two strong draws posted over at Gold All Over - both in Serie A, AS Roma v AC Milan (3.5) and Lecce v Napoli (3.7).

Pete Nordsted goes for draws in the Newcastle United v Birmingham City, Stoke City v Arsenal and Fulham v Liverpool matches.

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