Saturday, 21 May 2011

How Not To Win

While in-play baseball has nothing like the liquidity of basketball, there are often games at a decent hour on weekends or getaway days, and the occasional opportunity. This weekend sees some inter-league games, and the American League teams have come out ahead in each of the last seven seasons. The Chicago White Sox have the second best record in these games, and at home to the National League's Los Angeles Dodgers were attractive at 2.0 today.

As is my wont, I had my in-play lay in at a low, but best available, 1.02, and with the score 1-0 to the White Sox, I was a little surprised to see £10 taken at this price - in the middle of the second innings! Eh? The probability of a team leading by 1 run at this stage going on to win the game is 65.4% (1.53) and 1.02 is a little greater than that at 98%.

At the time of writing, the fourth inning has just ended and the White Sox are up by 7-1 so the backer may well get away with it, but backing at 1.02 in one run games with 5/6 of the game still to go is not a long-term winning strategy.

I await O'Dwyers next screenshot with interest, as I suspect my 20p may be found on his baseball statement.

Incidentally, I have £275 currently sitting at 1.02 if anyone is interested. The correct price for a team leading by 4 at this stage of the game is 1.08, and while "The Book" doesn't list the probabilities for a bigger lead than four, 1.02 seems about right. Help yourselves - I don't care. The world could end at any moment.

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