Tuesday, 3 May 2011

No Respect


I'm not sure that the posting of a monthly update is of much interest to anyone but the blogger himself, but for the record, the month of April is now overall in profit, with a less than impressive daily average over the six years of £1.68. But it's a profit, and with every other calendar month well in profit, there will, barring disaster, be no red in the Monthly Summary update for at least another year. Taking a break for a couple of weeks seems to be the way to go!

Another award came my way yesterday, although I suspect the judges at Full Time Betting weren't being entirely serious. If only these awards came with a cash prize as does the Nobel Prize. Once again, the world of Sports Investment Research is treated with less respect than the goings on at CERN. Our understanding of the universe might be about to change, but how will the Lakers react to losing Game 1 at home to the Dallas Mavericks is probably a slightly more interesting question for most readers.

I have had one request, well actually I offered, for an e-mail giving my Strong Draw selections. It's late in the season, but if anyone is interested for next season just let me know. At the end of the season, I'll publish the numbers, but for the second consecutive year, it seems that in certain matches, the draw offers better value than betting on the home or away team. An article on goal.com discussed Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster system earlier this season,with a bookie suggesting that

There are a couple of aspects to this theory that make it more appealing than an evening at Hugh Hefner’s grotto. The main aspect is the value that is available in backing the draw. People tend to bet with their ‘gut’, following their instincts and often backing the team they would like to win.

This means that a bookmaker’s liabilities can be stacked up on either team but only paltry amounts end up being staked on the draw. How does this help I hear you ask? Well if no one is backing a particular occurrence, the bookmaker will raise the price and in turn beef up Peter’s profit margin when a winner is selected.

If the true price of the draw is around 3.25, then the lack of bets can often boost the price to 3.5 or even 4.0. Add to that the fact that Peter’s selections often find draws in games where there is a heavy favourite to win the game and the price for the draw can be even greater still.
The average price is a little over 3.4 on my selections (in 2011), with a strike rate of 34.5% on the season. It may not be the most exciting bet to follow, but if you're serious about making money on the exchanges, you aren't looking for excitement.

Finally, the Dr J thread continues to thrive on the Betfair Forum, proving to be a thread with, for the most part, some sensible comments.

2 comments:

Lazy Trader said...

Just read the Dr J thread, thought you were opposed to those dick waving profit type threads :)

Think the thing it highlighted for me was the difference between being a part timer and full timer of which I've been both. Part time, especially with a decent enough paid job, it's very much an intellectual type hobby where you're happy to pits your wits against the best and the rewards are secondary. Full time it's simply about money and you'd rather be pitting your wits against the worst players.

My situation was pretty much similar to talkbets where I was self employed able to take time off now and then to play. It was only when circs changed and I went full time I really stepped up a gear mainly because I needed to.

mouldhouse said...

I would be interested in the strong draw selections via email next year if its on offer.

Thanks