Saturday, 13 August 2011

Lay The Saints

The Ligue One games today have all the home teams slightly too short, excepting Valenciennes who are almost value at 2.04 to beat Brest, but I'm looking for 10% value and 2.08. The best value lays are St Etienne v Nancy and Rennes v Paris St Germain. St Etienne are priced at 2.1 but I have them at 2.96. Rennes are 2.94 while I have them at 3.42. Only two of the seven Under / Over markets are out of line with my prices, and they are Under at 1.76 Lorient v Bordeaux and Over at 2.4 St Etienne v Nancy.

In the Bundesliga, Freiburg v Mainz is the one XX Draw, and the value bets are as shown in the screenshot. I'd forgotten how much time this takes every week! Most of the German games are showing value on the under tomorrow, as they did last week. 

One week was just an oddity, but two weeks in a row seemed a little strange, so I dug deeper and discovered an error in the spreadsheet, which has now been corrected. This bug resulted in the probability of a goal being slightly too low, so it'll be a few games before I am back to using these. 

The programmer has been relieved of his duties. (He did nothing but complain about how much time it took him anyway). Hamburg and Schalke '04 are the two Bundeslayga picks for today, with Kaiserslautern and Bayer Leverkusen tomorrow and Monday respectively.

Two more XX Draws in the EPL, the games of Newcastle United v Arsenal and Stoke City v Chelsea, and now that the prices are settled on the games at QPR and Wigan, both of these are value Over bets at 2.28 and 2.0 respectively. Just for fun remember.

American Football has started, and it's usually profitable to lay the favourite in the pre-season exhibition games. The teams on display seldom bear any resemblance to the teams that will be playing in the regular season, of if there is any resemblance, it is very brief with starting players being pulled out early. To me, this makes all the games something of a lottery, although the results haven't been hugely impressive from the first few games. Of ten matches, favourites have won 6 of 9, but the winning lays have been at 1.76, 1.62 and 1.82 so the damage isn't too bad. Incidentally, the response to Scott's idea of covering an American Football game in-running received an underwhelming response, and I hadn't even had a chance to mention the enrolment fee!

4 comments:

il blogger said...

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Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

Have you got an email address I can contact you on?

If you're happy to share drop em a line at mark@markiverson.com

Just an idea regarding this NFL thingy.

All the best,

Mark

msv said...

Hi Cassini,

I am following your blog very closely and have to thank you for all the advice which has helped me a lot to improve my trading, so at least I do not have to deposit funds any more :-) Especially the discussion on the topic "to green or not to green" was very helpful.

I am from Germany and a big fan of the Bundesliga (but unfortunately have no edge there), so I checked the prices you had in this post and recognized you were right in a older post where you wrote: "On a final note, I am seeing my value picks in midweek frequently shorten before kick-off. Something I need to look at more closely in the coming weeks"

So the prices are now (approx 80 min. before kick-off):

Back Mainz 2.72 (instead of 3.1)
Lay Hamburg 2.06 (1.98)
Lay Dortmund 1.84 (1.8)
Back Nurnberg 2.16 (2.36)
just Lay Schalke improved 1.64 (1.67)

Maybe next time you could post the Bundesliga prices little bit earlier :-)

You get those prices out of a self made excel-sheet, right?

Thanks for all the great posts, I have learned and laughed a lot.

Best regards

msv said...

Just before kick-off the prices have even dropped to

Back Mainz 2.6
Back Nurnberg 1.97

Best regards