Monday, 1 August 2011

Edison Enlightenment

I stopped writing monthly review posts in part because they are not very interesting to anyone but me, and they are meaningless. It's pointless comparing a January full of NBA and NFL action with a July filled with poor quality football and baseball. Comparing January with other Januarys is more reasonable, but it makes far more sense to write end-of-season reviews, or perhaps even mid-season reviews. Having said that, the end of a month does seem like a good time to look back at ongoing tipping sites such as Free Under Over Soccer Picks else where do you pause and take a look at how they are doing? July finished with a record of 12-15, and a loss to level stakes of 2.21 points, as shown over at Gold All Over. It was actually a month of two halves, with just four losers in the first 15 days (8-4) but just four winners in the final 15 picks.

The MLB Daily Picks had a good July, going 15-11 for a 6.86 point profit to level stakes, and moving into profit (107 bets, +1.7) since I started following these picks. Just what the doctor ordered when it comes to increasing commission without hurting profits.

A timely post from Sports Trading Life as Arsenal yet again let a lead slip away. It may have been a meaningless competition, but it can't have been much of a confidence boost as the new season approaches.

I finally finished reading "Bounce" and there is some good stuff in there. I've mentioned the 10,000 hours of purposeful practice before, but to any prospective trader who thinks that being successful depends on talent rather than effort, here's something paraphrased from the book to consider.
If you buy into the talent myth, you are likely to regard any failure as evidence that you lack the requisite talent and are therefore likely to give up, and that is a perfectly rational thing to do, given the premise. But someone who believes that excellence hinges on hard work will not regard failure as an indictment but as an opportunity to adapt and grow, and with perseverance eventually comes excellence. It is hardly surprising, then, that patterns of success and failure in the real world have little to do with genes, and very much to do with our fundamental beliefs about the nature of talent. As Edison himself said: "If I find ten thousand ways something won't work, I haven't failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward". It is a message that should be stapled to the wall of every school and trading desk, and to the mind of every parent, teacher, politician and sports trader.

3 comments:

Peter "redimp"Hunt said...

"Diligence is the mother of good luck." - Benjamin Franklin

P said...

You're missing the boat with the MLB picks Cassini!

Simply laying the home favourite appears to be much more of an edge:

http://www.mlbdailypicks.com/2011-ratings-results/

Betfair Guru said...

I understand from reading that...it relates to his own rating system rather than indiscimintely laying strong home favourites?

Maybe I read it wrong