Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Momentum

Peter Webb posted on a subject that resonates with me at this time of a season.

Early season football is the most interesting time of the year for me.

Some teams play well but lose, some play poorly but win and in the early season that gives a lift or shock to the team. Teams can easily build or lose momentum early in the season so its key to see how things are playing out. Short term momentum is critical and can lead to early season over performance but to keep it going over the whole season requires plenty of skill and a deep squad. In the premier league there really is a massive gulf between the top teams and the rest. Elsewhere there is a thinner line in skill levels between teams and this makes momentum and the psychological benefits it brings, critically important.

Keep your eye open for teams heading in either direction and that will give you some clues to short term value seeking in football matches.
Although I don't track the lower leagues any more, I do still keep an eye on them, and I don't know about anyone else, but you can't help but feel that certain teams seem to have it going for them. For me, in the Championship, right now it's Southampton and Brighton, both keeping their momentum going from last season, with West Ham looking good too - having reversed their momentum from last season! And a come from behind win with two 90' goals is sure to propel another southern team to further success, preferably long-term and short-term.

In League One it's Charlton Athletic, and in League Two, Crawley Town are looking strong. A little early for the Premier League opinions yet, but a mouth watering clash between the top two coming up this Sunday. As for Grimsby Town - there is a team headed in the wrong direction. Keep an eye on Dover in the Conference South too. How to incorporate this subjectivity into my spreadsheet is another thing altogether.

I was slightly premature with my prices for the Arsenal v Liverpool game this Saturday, given that they had yet to play Udinese, but Arsenal won by the (close to) expected margin, so the prices haven't changed by more than .01 - I didn't look at the Arsenal v Udinese market at all, but I had Arsenal at 2.13 if anyone cares to enlighten me as to what their approximate SP was.

Talkbet finds it highly amusing that after my gentle ribbing of the phoney Adam Heathcote and his post about staying hydrated, I should trip up over Evian. 

I can't say that too much about that error was amusing, but when my sense of humour returns in a few weeks, I shall have a wry smile at how 'Evian the irony it was.

4 comments:

Mark said...

Sheffield United are a shocking omission from League 1 (not that I'm biased of course!) Last night's 3-2 comeback win from 0-2 down makes it 3/3 wins and we are definitely going the right way. It's also a long time since SUFC won 3 on the bounce, so I am probably getting carried away.

NICK said...

Arsenal came into around 1.58 SP, Cassini.

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Griff said...

Cassini,

I'm after some advise, I've been working on my own ratings for probably 18 months on and off. I think I've found a edge. I've back tested by system over 3 years and it returned good profit each year so far.

Over how many seasons would you say I should back test over?

Thanks Very Much