Saturday, 12 November 2011

1000 To 1

Above is a screenshot from Thursday night's San Diego Chargers v Oakland Raiders game. Pretty good you might think, but unfortunately it didn't end so well.

The Chargers, down by a touchdown, began a drive which would have resulted in their becoming favourites at 1.65 or so had they scored a TD, and a lay of the Raiders looked like a smart move. After building a good position, I often use the strategy of laying the current favourite for the amount of profit built in to that point, so in rough figures, I was a little over £3000 green on the Chargers, and £1 (yes, seriously!) green on the Raiders when the drive fizzled out. Except that it didn't fizzle out, which would at least have given me a chance to trade out. Instead it blew up in my face with an interception, which gives no opportunity for damage control. The price of aggression I suppose.

Of course it's easy to say that I should have quit while ahead, and yes, in this instance that would have been true, but in the long run, laying the favourite whose price is too short will boost the bottom line more than walking away does. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but so long as the wins exceed the losses, keep playing the odds.

Lastly, For anyone expecting XX Draw Selections this weekend, there are none. No games, so no selections. No one missed an e-mail - I rather assumed that everyone would know it was an international weekend.

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