Sunday 6 November 2011

Great Strides

A quiet weekend for the XX Draw selections, with just one match qualifying, Novaro v AS Roma. On Thursday the draw was trading at 3.65 / 3.7 on Betfair, but by Saturday had dropped as low as 3.3. I added some subscribers to the service last week, and the thought did occur to me that in a week with just one selection, more money than usual was backing this draw. However, the price did rebound as kick-off approached, and in fact I had more matched at 3.7 just before kick-off. The game was actually looking good for a long time, one of those games with 'nil nil written all over it' as they say, but after the draw price touched 1.77, two goals after 70 minutes meant the bet went down. The ROI drops to 23.15% after 54 selections.

I mentioned previously that backing the Under 2.5 goals on the XX Draw Selections is also a profitable strategy, at least the ROI on this increased to 12.1% with the Under coming in at 2.0. I have added these selections to the comparison table above.

Although I clearly explained in the 'prospectus' that XX Draw selections were dependent on the numbers alone, and that some weeks might see no selections, other weeks several, I did feel bad about just having the one pick, so I added four matches that came close to qualifying. Newcastle United v Everton was close, Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City wasn't, but two winners were found in Real Mallorca v Sevilla and Bordeaux v Paris St Germain.

Green Pullover found another Barcelona draw at a good price (6.5), as well as a winner with Rennes v Valenciennes. Two from five is not too shabby, and he consolidates second place with an ROI of 19.6%.

Peter Nordsted's pursuit of games with the same number of goals in both halves continued, and showed a profit on the weekend with one winner from three.

Not such good news from Griff or Football Elite this weekend. Griff dropped to 6th place in the table with two more losses but still a small sample. Football Elite had a poor weekend with just one winner (2.08) from four selections, and the ROI on this season falls to just 3.12% from 25 selections.

I came across an interesting idea on the Betfair forum where one poster (MaryChain) randomly picks three matches a week, randomly selects Home, Away or a Draw bet on each, and randomly stakes £10, £20 or £50. His random selections are showing a decent profit on the season! From next week, I am going to do something similar, and select three matches from the five leagues I follow and track the outcome of the draw. Theoretical backing only, just another method to measure our systems against.

I'm not into horse racing as anyone reading this blog knows, but it's hard not to notice when a horse starts a race at 1.04. Unbeaten in 15 races, Black Caviar duly won again, rather comfortably in my non-expert opinion. Apparently, her invincibility could be down to mathematics. Australia's Channel 7 reported that per stride, she covers 11 metres, compared with the 'average' horse's 9 metres, and at Flemington, there were no pesky corners to negotiate.

I must work on increasing my stride when I run. It's certainly true that my 100 metre times were always relatively so much better than my longer distances. Now I know why - no bends.

Finally, a professional gambler has generously posted a video on YouTube with useful advice for anyone considering going pro any time soon. Included is advice on the set up required, horse selection techniques, how to deal with bookmakers and how to handle losses. Even the importance of staying hydrated is subtly worked in during the early scenes where a bottle of Evian is in evidence. More experienced pros might also learn something. It's certainly worth a look.

1 comment:

Average Guy said...

Evian = Naive spelt backwards ?