Wednesday, 16 January 2013

Hedging Totals

Derek commented on the FTL table: 
Nice set up with the league!
Do you post all of the selections before the games or just a few? I understand there are some pros here so maybe you could not post these but it would be nice to compare everyone's selections.
Also how might one get involved in this, I would like to do this next season :)
Obviously the Pro selections I can't post up ahead of time, but most of the others are available on the entrants blogs, which are linked to from the very fine blog you are currently reading.

Of the profitable (to date) selections, here is the Premier Edge page. Neil emails his selections to me, and I will post them up ahead of time. Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster selections are kind of Pro, but they are sent out as part of his Free Weekly Insider - his email is if you want to be added to his list. The Lay The Draw (FTS) selections are sent out by Ian Erskine, I believe to anyone who has subscribed to any of his services in the past. The Bundeslayga selections are mine, and not part of the XX Draws service, so I sometimes put these up, but the selection method is easy enough. Lay home teams between 1.3 and 1.99.

Looking at the currently loss making selections, both Premier Betting and Football Elite are professional services so their picks are not made public before the result is in the books. CKL Football Tips haven't posted in a month, then there are Free Under Over Soccer Picks, Little Al emails his selections, as did Tony and Griff, who both seem to have given up after poor runs. Jon (Talkbet) posts his bets up. Reviewing these made me realise that I had missed Football Formbook's selections last week, so I'll catch them up, and that's it.

If Derek wants to join in, he can join in now. maintaining the table is a lot of work, and I doubt that I shall continue it beyond this season. Simply send an email with your selections prior to kick-off and I'll add you. You are currently in 14th place!

In Betfair's apparently never ending campaign to add more and more sub-markets to their games, the NBA this year often sees two or three Under / Over markets. Occasionally the markets differ significantly, last night for example saw the Under 211.5 market priced at 2.16 and the Over 213.5 market at 2.14 / 2.16 on the Los Angeles Lakers v Milwaukee Bucks game. While not risk-free, for anyone looking for some churning opportunities, playing the unders on the lower market, and the overs on the higher market isn't the worst strategy in the world. The result was a 104 to 88 win for the Lakers and the killer 212 or 213 total was comfortably avoided.


Derek Casey said...

HI Cassini,

Thanks very much for the reply. really appreciate it. It will be a shame if you don't continue it next season, its a great concept and i am sure someone would be willing to give you a hand with it!!

One thing i didnt catch was where to email the selections.

Thanks Again

Webbo said...

I enjoy the table updates but I’m surprised you’ve kept up the updating this long, it must be a right job and a half!

Funnily enough, I could actually do with some tipsters for my new site Tipster Table (

So if anyone does fancy posting their tips on there when this ends (or even now) you’d be very welcome!

Cheers Webbo

Anonymous said...

Hello there,

i have one question. hopefully cassini or someone experienced in math and betting can help?

i have some stupid local betting shops here (limits are ok for my bets).

f.e handball.. pinnacle has under 55.5 at 1.8 odds.. i can get 56.5 at 1.9 odds.. its big difference isnt it? its like 1.7 odds or lower at pinnacle against 1.9 at my shop..

its same in basketball and other sports. i can really get some good odds..

do you think i can bet blindly these differences?

should i bet only singles? maybe some systems?

thanks in advance


asdf said...

Hi Cassini,
I’m a long time follower of your blog and something you say is bothering me. You keep going on and on about how unlucky you are to lose a big chunk of money the week you would not have paid premium charge anyway or recently you said that premium charge is taken in the good weeks but not refunded the bad ones.

But how does it make a difference if you lose 1000$ more on a losing week or 1000$ more on a winning week? As I understand it, premium charge calculation is based on the lifetime of the account. It is checked every week but the check is made on a lifetime basis. Every week the calculation starts from scratch, checking if the sum of your lifetime commission+Premium Charge is totaling more than 20% your lifetime gross profit (keeping aside some weird calculation about implied commission). So if you were even for the week and lose 1000$ in your last trade to make it -1000$ for the week, you will have 1000$ less in your lifetime gross profit for the next week calculation and you’ll pay about 200$ less premium charge next week. Just like you would pay about 200$ less in premium charge for the present week if you would have lost 1000$ in the last trade of a winning week. The only difference between the two scenarios is the week you will get the ”credit”. Or I’m I missing something? I must be because you seem so sure about all this.