Friday, 18 January 2013


Some comments to attend to, the first was a follow up on the FTL from Derek, who wrote:

Hi Cassini,
Thanks very much for the reply. really appreciate it. It will be a shame if you don't continue it next season, its a great concept and i am sure someone would be willing to give you a hand with it!!
One thing I didnt catch was where to email the selections.

Thanks Again
Selections can be emailed to me at but on this same subject, before you do, you may want to read the next comment from Webbo, and send them to him instead. Webbo wrote:
I enjoy the table updates but I’m surprised you’ve kept up the updating this long, it must be a right job and a half!
Funnily enough, I could actually do with some tipsters for my new site Tipster Table (
So if anyone does fancy posting their tips on there when this ends (or even now) you’d be very welcome!

Cheers Webbo
Check out the website - it's far more professional looking than my Excel table, and I might even send the odd non-XX Draw selection over there my self. Of course, there's no reason why you shouldn't send entries to both. 

Seems like a good time to put up this week's selections from Neil and Premier Edge:
Swansea City v Stoke City - Swansea City @ 2.22
West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers - West Ham United @ 2.12
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United - Draw @ 3.59
Premier Edge:
Wigan Athletic v Sunderland – Sunderland +0.5 Asian Handicap (1.84 at Pinnacle)
Liverpool v Norwich City – Under 3.25 goals (1.806 at Pinnacle)
West Bromwich Albion v Aston Villa – Under 2.75 goals (1.813 at Pinnacle)
Granada v Rayo Vallecano – Over 2.25 goals Asian Goal line (1.826 at Pinnacle)
Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Total Real Sociedad goals Over 0.5 (1.8 at Boylesports)
Getafe v Sevilla – Over 2.25 goals Asian Goal line (1.855 at Pinnacle)
Valencia v Real Madrid – Over 3 goals Asian Goal line (2.0 at Pinnacle)
Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao – 2 or 3 goals (2.0 at Bet365/Paddy Power)
Anonymous writes:
Hello there,
I have one question. Hopefully Cassini or someone experienced in math and betting can help?
I have some stupid local betting shops here (limits are ok for my bets).
E.g. handball.. Pinnacle has under 55.5 at 1.8 odds.. I can get 56.5 at 1.9 odds.. it's a big difference isn't it? It's like 1.7 odds or lower at Pinnacle against 1.9 at my shop..
It's same in basketball and other sports. I can really get some good odds..
Do you think I can bet blindly these differences?
Should I bet only singles? Maybe some systems?
Thanks in advance
On the face of it, you should be able to back your Under 56.5 at 1.9 and lay off on the exchanges, but it won't last. Any inefficiencies such as these will soon disappear. Stupid betting shops do not stay in business for long.

And finally, on the subject of the Premium Charge, asdf wrote:
Hi Cassini,
I’m a long time follower of your blog and something you say is bothering me. You keep going on and on about how unlucky you are to lose a big chunk of money the week you would not have paid premium charge anyway or recently you said that premium charge is taken in the good weeks but not refunded the bad ones.

But how does it make a difference if you lose 1000$ more on a losing week or 1000$ more on a winning week? As I understand it, premium charge calculation is based on the lifetime of the account. It is checked every week but the check is made on a lifetime basis. Every week the calculation starts from scratch, checking if the sum of your lifetime commission+Premium Charge is totaling more than 20% your lifetime gross profit (keeping aside some weird calculation about implied commission). So if you were even for the week and lose 1000$ in your last trade to make it -1000$ for the week, you will have 1000$ less in your lifetime gross profit for the next week calculation and you’ll pay about 200$ less premium charge next week. Just like you would pay about 200$ less in premium charge for the present week if you would have lost 1000$ in the last trade of a winning week. The only difference between the two scenarios is the week you will get the ”credit”. Or I’m I missing something? I must be because you seem so sure about all this.

Well I hate to bother anyone, but what I meant was that if you win in one week, then lose the same (gross) amount the next week, you are worse off in the short term than if your win and loss are in the same week.

To use round numbers for clarity, if your lifetime Gross Profit is £300k and you are on a 50% Super PC rate, your Total Charges are £150k. If you win £5k and lose £5k the same week, you pay no PC. You end up down the commission you paid on your win.

If you win £5k one week, and then lose the following week, you are up (net) £2,500. The next week you lose £5k and you are now down by £2,500 overall.

Yes, you earn a credit of ~5% of your win added to the Total Charges which means that you can win double this amount before incurring the PC in the future, but at my age, it's a concern that the future may never come! It is always now. I must admit that it is slightly comforting in losing weeks to think that you are building up a cushion for the next big win, but not as comforting as it would be if the charge just went away.

1 comment:

Webbo said...

Thanks very much for the mention Cassini and kind words. It would be awesome to have any tips from someone of your calibre on the site.