Sunday, 20 January 2013


While legendary is probably one of the most overused words in the English language, occasionally its use is appropriate. Writing about his Tipstertable which I mentioned yesterday, Webbo of Betfair Banter writes:

I’ve got a few others involved already and the Legendary Cassini from GreenAllOver has also expressed an interest!
My XX draws, or related markets on those selections, are the majority of my football betting, but I do occasionally find a value bet such as Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town at evens (5-0), and last weeks top value bet was Sunderland v West ham United at 2.58 (a 24% edge, won 3-0) and yesterday's was Swansea City v Stoke City, a game I had Swansea priced at 1.68 to win, (Stoke are shipping a lot of goals recently, while Swansea can score at home) yet was matched at 2.28, 35% edge. Swansea won 3-1. I seem to need a 20%+ edge though, because the next three EPL value bets all in the 15% to 18% range were West Ham United (drew with QPR),  Newcastle (lost to Reading), and West Bromwich Albion (drew with Aston Villa).

There was just the one XX Classic selection this week, but Brest went down by a single goal at home to St Etienne, At least it was a winner on the HT00 and Unders markets, so I wasn't too disappointed, although Football Elite probably were, as Brest (DNB) were a recommended bet.

A fuller write up after the weekend is wrapped up as usual, but the Extended draws stopped their losing run at 21. It could have been only 20 but for a 90th minute Marseille goal, but Getafe and Sevilla drew 1-1 to my immense relief. I've written before that with draw betting, these kinds of run are guaranteed, but an example of how quickly fortunes can change can be seen with Ian Erskine's Lay The Draw selections. Backing the draw, he started off with one 'winner' in 24, including a run of 19, at which point we were -19.70 points, -82% ROI. since then we have had 16 selections, with 10 ending as draws, and this entry is now up 9.51 points with an ROI of 24% and currently sits in third place in the FTL table.

A rarity these days, but one post on the Betfair Forum caught my eye the other day. A Nigelpm1 wrote:
For my money there are two types of gamblers.
1) The ones who only bet with the high street bookies in their shops - that market will probably always be there.
2) The ones (like us) who bet at the best price on-line with no affection towards any particularly bookie.
I think there's probably a third group which is those who bet on line, but who have a favourite bookmaker. Tech savvy enough to be able to have the convenience of betting on-line, but too lazy or not bet-savvy enough to look for the best prices all the time.

How true is the statement that the High Street bookies market will always be there? The number is certainly increasing, especially in areas of poverty and high unemployment, and unless there are some regulatory changes, the big bookmaking corporations will continue to open up new casinos, I mean betting shops. It's unfortunate, but there will always be those drawn to FOBTs and who want to bet with no regard or understanding of value.

Type 2 is probably a small percentage, given that bookmakers soon restrict or close winning accounts, but the subset of this group, those who understand value but who have few options other than exchanges or a few bookmaker accounts, is probably larger. Most people reading this probably fall into this category.

The thread was actually about Betfair restricting people on their Fixed Odds product, and their true bookmaking colours show through here. Unless they can immediately lay your bet off, i.e. match it with someone else on the opposite side, Betfair's appetite for risk is minimal.

Two Conference Championship matches from the NFL today, the NFC's Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers followed by the AFC's New England Patriots v Baltimore Ravens. It will be hard to match the excitement of last weekend's games, but play-off games rarely go without some kind of drama. Favourites (i.e. Patriots and 49ers) have the edge in these Conference Championship games, beating the spread 57% of the time over the last 25 years. 

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