Sunday 17 November 2013

Rose-ier Betting Results

I believe that on many occasions, and indeed quite recently, I have mentioned that one of the hazards of betting pre-game on basketball is the impact on prices of team news after your bet has been placed.

I kindly shared this advice with the good folks over at NBA Tips1 earlier this month, after they were caught out on an Oklahoma City Thunder game in which Russell Westbrook's appearance was uncertain.

Not for the first time, it appears my advice is falling on deaf ears, this time involving a Chicago Bulls game and the always doubtful / possible Derrick Rose.
After advising a one unit stake to their hundreds of followers, the NBA Tips1 people seem to think that one hour before tip-off it is possible to contact Sporting Bet and halve your stake. It isn't. Once a bet is struck, save for palpable error, or some irregularity, it is a done deal. You can trim your position by taking the other side, but if you are looking to do that, the odds on the other side will have shortened.

Tipsters cannot change their bets after they have been published for several hours! If you choose to tip pre-game in a sport like basketball, this is a risk you take. You can't reduce your stake just because you don't like news that comes after the bet is struck.

Of course, on occasion team news will work in your favour, but calling Sporting Bet to double or triple your stake at the original odds won't be successful either.

In my opinion, to maintain any credibility at all, bets and P&Ls have to be recorded as posted. I didn't follow their selections last season, but if this massaging of the numbers took place then, it would certainly help explain a total that appears to be quite remarkable.

NBA Tips show a loss on 2013-14 (including pre-season) of 11.94 points. My numbers tell a different story, and will now be at least 0.5 points lower unless NBA Tips1 do the right thing and record using the original stake size of one unit.

Try calling your stockbroker and reneging on an order you've placed - "Oh, sorry - I just saw the latest results and I'd like to halve the market order I placed four hours ago please".

Here are the correct numbers from NBA Tips with the bets as first recommended:
Speaking of the 'right thing to do', Danny had this to say after last weekend's FTL sponsored by TFA table updates:
Cassini thanks for the FTL update. How you are able to manage all these entries is an organisational miracle in itself!
With regard to the FTL, I think it would only be fair to award 12 points to anyone who backed West Brom at Chelsea on Saturday, seeing as the Chelsea penalty decision was one of the most SCANDALOUS in the history of the game and a total fraud in my opinion. I think it only proper that FTL stands up for fair play and as the politicians like to say 'It's the right thing to do'.
I think Danny has a point. All my losing XX Draws now have a recommended stake size of 0.01 units, while the winners should be backed with 10 units each. By my calculations, these selections are now in profit by 324.39 points. Call your bookmaker and let them know that modifying stake size after the fact is now standard industry practice.

John Walsh added yet more money to my account last night with a winning selection of the New York Rangers over his previous night's selection Montreal Canadiens. He writes:
Couldn't help but laugh at you not wanting to be disrespectful to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I believe you mentioned that Golden State is your favorite basketball team. Do you feel like you disrespected the Warriors?
I bet on the Montreal Canadiens last night and against them tonight. I'll let you know if Lars Eller calls me out.
John does have a point. Yes, I did disrespect the Warriors! Never good when the sporting outcome you want doesn't match the best financial outcome. Having had the Warriors as "my" NBA team for several years, I am all too familiar with their hot and cold streaks, and having seen the Warriors give up a 14 point lead to trail by one, that knowledge no doubt influenced my decision to not fully level up. There may have been an element of emotional insurance there too - the joy of a win balancing the lost cash, and maybe the thought of going in too heavy on the Warriors and I would jinx them. It's all very complicated. I have to say though that I did not get £900 of pleasure from the win. A game 7 win in the Finals might have come close, but game 9 of the regular season? Nah, nowhere near. Gambling is so much easier when you have no allegiance / emotions though.
Golden State Warriors 2017-18
Football now, and on a quiet weekend, Skeeve had an excellent day in the FTL sponsored by TFA. He hit four winners from seven, and two draws from two. Punters' Friend Neil did not fare so well. Having crawled back to being down by just 4.47 after last weekend, Neil hit a paltry 4 from 25 yesterday, following on from 2 of 9 in midweek. There could be some more red after the updates. The Football Analyst had four winners from eleven, while Hofs Hackers also had the two Skeeve Conference draws (Chester v Luton Town and Barnet v Cambridge United) for a profitable weekend. Updated table when the prices are out there.

Finally, quiz time - with the first loss of the season for the Indiana Pacers last night (or was it only half a loss?) there is only one team who has led in the Fourth Quarter of every game this season. Name them. A free XX Draw subscription (includes Cassini Value and Bundeslayga selections) for the remainder of the season to the first person emailing the answer to. calciocassini @ 

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