Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Giants, Yunus and Bounties

Before we get to the FTL updates, I hope some of you read my preview of the World Series which started last night. Having suggested value in the San Francisco Giants to win both Game 1 and the Series, it was pleasing to see them win the opening game with ease at around 2.0, with the longer lay-off not helping the Kansas City Royals starting pitcher as I'd suggested would be the case, and the 2.06 on the Giants for the Series will be a lot shorter when prices settle in the 1.55 - 1.65 range. 
The Royals have had a tremendous run so far this post-season, but with the experience the Giants have, the concern for the Royals is that once the bubble is burst, their season could come to a quick end.
Comparisons could be made to the Rockies of 2007 who swept both their Division Series and Championship series, but after eight days off, were themselves swept in the World Series.
We shall see, but that prediction is off to a good start.

A fairly busy midweek for the FTL, but no games remain, so here are the latest standings. 

Up by 10 or more points:
Up, by less than 10 points:
Down, by less than 10 points:
Down by more than 10 points:
The Top ten in the race for October's monthly prize are:
Given the recent batch of posts on the topic of how prices should be or are recorded, it was rather odd to receive the following question from Bounty Boy Stewboss (Football Investor). He asks:
Are you still quoting XX Draw results at Betfair GROSS prices Cassini?
Every entry in the FTL is, as last season, recorded using the prices from Pinnacle Sports, as recorded independently on Football Data's excellent web site.

Self-recording prices is really not a good idea in my opinion, something that finally sunk in at the end of the 2012-13 season. Even if you are scrupulously honest and fair, there is the even more important detail that you need to be SEEN to be honest and fair. As was said about the Supreme Court ruling on the Gore / Bush 2000 election:
Even a scrupulously honest person who is trying hard to be fair to his political opponents is never quite as fair as he is to the folks on his own side.
None of this is meant to imply that any service I am familiar with is dishonest, but then I only have knowledge of the more reputable ones. Self-regulation doesn't work, as many examples in history have shown, and Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus said:
Self-regulation doesn't really work, because if you are in the same business, you are doing things in your favour. So you need some external body to look at what you do.
None of us are likely to be calling in the auditors any time soon, but using independent prices seems like a step in the right direction. Recording against a bottom line that anyone can match, and that most can beat, is far better than recording your own numbers that may or may not be achievable.

I mentioned the Bounty Boys earlier, and while Skeeve has yet to make a selection, here's how they stand right now:
TFA Draws had a good day yesterday, with all four draw selections in the Championship ending as draws. Unfortunately the League 1 and League 2 selections all lost, but it was a winning round, and Graeme is only just in the red. Football Elite has just 9 entries ahead of him, while Football Investor has 13.

For anyone wondering where the Cassini Newsletter is, it awaits the completion of the Champions League game tonight between Liverpool and Real Madrid. There are a couple of Europa League games on Thursday which may impact bets on a couple of teams, but I plan on sending out the newsletter with the details of these on Thursday. 

1 comment:

Stewboss said...

I think you may have misunderstood my question Cassini. The question didn't relate to 13/14 or 14/15 or indeed the FTL. I was referring to your odds policy on your Premium XX Draws service in 12/13.

From what I can gather in the link I posted, the current policy is quite a sea change!