Friday, 15 January 2016

Blatantly Successful

The 'Lay The Last Loser' produced another winner at my old friend Neil Redfearn's Rotherham United on Tuesday night as Brighton and Hove Albion continued their appalling run of form.
Bet 15 sees Brighton play at Blackburn Rovers. Let's hope it's not the final bet. Neil was a neighbour in Caterham during his days at Crystal Palace, and I helped him out with his training one day, a story for another day perhaps.

Successful James was back, correcting my writing:
For 'blatant' read 'successful'.
We are talking from the same page with regards to the penny bets. It's still a zero sum game minus Betfair's commission. No money is being magicked from anywhere other than the Bank of England. Betfair will close down anyone taking advantage. (Apart from themselves, of course).
Trader247 confirmed my hypothesis in a post on his blog some time ago.
Maybe you are getting a little too old and should stick to the form book and leave the algo-trading to the youngsters (i.e. those of us who know who Simon Groom is,) though you might want to catch up a little by trading in your Baird Televisor.
Well that last paragraph was a bit rude I thought! I'm keeping the years at bay just the same as Gary Lineker is - he even copied my goatee:
Lineker, 55, has quietly separated from his wife Danielle, a Welsh former lingerie model, 19 years his junior.
19 years! That kind of an age difference is always going to end in tears...

4 comments:

Games said...

I get it, he is calling you old.

bossman megarain said...

I disagree Betfair closes down, anyone naughty.

On many markets, trap bets, are placed, and its frustrating to see how long this practice is tolerated .. I would have thought, a company as 'great' etc, could have found a way, to stop it.

For those unaware .. this is what happens :

Take a run-lines market, which isnt v busy (volume has dropped off a cliff), someone will offer, maybe £35 at 1.70. The lay side is empty, so, a trap bettor, will request, £35 at 171.

If u think 1.70 is fair, u might be tempted to lay 1.71, but, its not, its 171.

I heard rummours, in the early days, Betfair ran their own trap Bots.

I sincerely hope, they never did/dont.

James said...

Running a "fat fingers" bot is a standard algo-trading technique both in sports and financial trading. Not that I think such a trade makes much money these days as most people trade through third-party software. You can easily fat finger trade on Betfair's website but not so with third-party software. It would be hard to do a trade as you mention on a ladder and impossible via a bot.

As I said in a previous comment, fundamental and technical trading are chalk and cheese. Whilst you might love sport, the rules (and the tedium) there are others who love the numbers for themselves and building abstract trading algorithms with no interest in the underlying activity. In finance that is what the "rocket scientists" are for, to have no interest in the trading or economics of underlying securities, just the skill to shake-down another trading firm.

Being an algo-trader, you and anyone else who puts their money up as risk is fair game. The exchange was created so that people could trade and that is what traders do.

Being an ex-cycle racer, I have no interest in soccer (there, I said it), cricket, rugby or any other sport (with the exception of hurling). For me it's the fun of out-witting a market without a care for the underlying sport.

Betfair runs all manner of bots to coax money out of naive bettors and botters. Why shouldn't they? The Betfair exchange is a form of dark pool and so they can do as they please with it. They have shareholders to take care of.

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2014/08/is-betfair-exchange-form-of-dark-pool.html

PS - If I come across as being antagonistic then it was not intentional.

bossman megarain said...

Hi James,

Your comments are not antagonistic .. all debate is welcome.

I understand your arguments, but have never understood how Financial markets can Bust trades, that are clearly a fat finger, but, Betfair, allow Bots to encourage someone to make a v expensive mistake.

If its a naive user, the trap bet will probably make a severe dent in their bank, and leave a v bad taste .. hardly encouraging future trade.

I am not sure of the number of users who trade via a ladder, as opposed to grid interface -- but, I have traded for many yrs, and trap bets, can still catch u .. unless u put in specific overides, which, may encumber other bets u would like to make.

My opinion of Betfair as a company, has steadily eroded over the last 10 yrs .. I would have thought, running Bots in this manner, would be contrary to best Financial practice .. but, maybe they are not regulated, to the same level as a financial services company .. and can do as they please.

Looking at the turnover figures, since the inception of PC, it would certainly seem, they are running a shrinking business .. which I just shake my head at .. but, clearly, someone is happy.