Sunday 10 January 2016

Three For The Road

Road team Seattle Seahawks prevailed at Minnesota 10-9 after the home team missed a late and short field goal to essentially win the game, so for the second game in a row, I got very lucky. The Minnesota Vikings led 9-0 going into the fourth quarter. I'm not sure how low they traded, but I'm guess in the 1.teens.

The last roadie of the Wild Card round play imminently, and this is the only game of the weekend where the home team is favoured, albeit by just one measly point.

On the subject of home and away, much has been written this season about the decline in home advantage seen in the English Premier League, although for readers of this blog, this will not be news.

In this rather impressive article over at Betting Expert, I wrote in August 2014 that:
One other trend worth drawing attention to is that of Away teams.
Historically, since 1947, Away teams have won 25% of matches. Home teams have won 49% and Draws the remaining 26%.
But averages can be deceiving. In the days of Division One, Away teams won 24% of matches.
Since the Premier League was formed, they have won 27%, and have steadily chipped away at the long established home advantage.
The last three seasons have seen an average Away win percentage of 30.3%. This is actually quite remarkable because it is a number not seen in a single season since 1947. Away teams over this three year period have averaged 1.22 goals per game, a number not seen since England won the World Cup.
Here are the win percentages over time – notice how the Away win averages are steadily gaining over the years, and in the last three seasons in particular:
Away Pct
More on the EPL later in the season, but several of you may have seen that all seven Serie A games today ended as Away wins. 
Again, if you read this blog you will know that Aways in Serie A are following the EPL trend with the last four seasons (including this one) ranked the top four this millennium. However, all seven in one day is quite a longshot. Update: 2,526-1 using Pinnacle Sports prices from the Football site. 

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