Monday, 26 September 2016

Trading With Kids

Some of you may have noticed a rather long interval between posts. I have been on Granddad duty looking after two children under the age of two, and to anyone who manages to trade under such a handicap, my sincerest congratulations.

I've written before about how the Exchange concept came along at a perfect time for me, no young kids and a girlfriend - now wife - who likes a quiet life and lets me get on with my stuff, but how anyone can concentrate for more than a few minutes with kids around, is beyond my comprehension right now. When they are quiet, I either want to catch up with my sleep or relax in a mindless fashion watching a film, knowing the next scream / cry is only a matter of time. 

I actually started this post several days ago, but haven't had the opportunity to complete it until now. Another week or so, and my life will be back to normal. I could have used the excuse that I'm actually CEO of a billion dollar global empire and have been out of the country for a while, but surely no one would believe that, would they?

At least I'm not the only one who finds Pinnacle's BetShare Tweets irritating. Stewboss commented:

I also find their Betshare tweets annoying for the same reason Cassini. More annoying than that are the tweets which proclaim that they never close accounts. Eventually I felt compelled to remind them that they closed thousands of UK based accounts in November 2014. Looks like they are planning a return though and all will be forgiven!
I think that while technically Pinnacle have closed accounts for regulatory reasons, and presumably they close accounts upon request also from problem / losing gamblers as requested, I can forgive this technicality.

When they say that they "never" close accounts, they clearly mean "winning accounts", a pitch that separates them from the crowd of all the other books who will close or limit your account as soon as it becomes profitable, or shows some sign that at some point it might have that potential.

Betfair have also closed accounts for regulatory reasons, or for sure stopped accepting bets from certain countries, and have quietly dropped their "Where Winners Are Welcome" mantra after introducing their punitive Premium Charges. I believe they also restrict accounts on their Sportsbook site too.

In the USA tonight, the first debate between the two Presidential candidates takes place, and it could get very ugly for the Republican nominee Donald Trump. 

Whatever your opinion of Hillary Clinton is, no rational person can deny that she is far better prepared to be President than Mr Trump. She has been in politics for a lifetime, was Secretary of State for several years, and will be far better prepared for the debates than Donald Trump. 

Trump is not a politician, and his history of insulting minorities, women, the disabled and his lack of understanding of world affairs ("why can't we use nuclear weapons if we have them?"), how the economy / US National Debt work, and proven constant lying should have already ruled him out as President, but incredibly he is hanging in there, at least for now.

While there are some people who won't be swayed whatever happens, the debates are likely to convince any floaters that Trump is hopelessly unsuited to the job, and the 1.6 available right now on the well-prepared Clinton for next President should shorten during the debate.

During my relaxing break, I did receive an email from non-league specialist Skeeve who has been discussed, in a positive way, on this blog before. He has returned to blogging after a spell away and will be back to advising his official picks in a little under a month. 

Although according to some sources, well maybe one source, I run a global betting empire and am behind multiple web sites, I actually have no business relationship with Skeeve so when I say that he has a stellar record over ten years, and that I have no concerns about his integrity, that is my unbiased and honest assessment. 

The quality of his research is unmatched:
Versatile defender/midfielder Staunton who had started three consecutive games following Williams' injury at right-back moved to centre-back, first-choice left-back Widdowson moved to right-back, central midfielder Raymond moved to left-back and there you have a completely unexpected, but very organized back four that even keeps a clean sheet against Dover (btw it was Justham's fifth clean sheet in ten games so far) who had scored at least once (and up to four - on two occasions) in each game since the opening day.
Specialising in a league where there is less focus than the top leagues has paid dividends over the years.    

Skeeve writes:
I'd be glad to send the 2015/16 season review to everyone who's interested and there's currently a 5% discount available (until the end of the month) if subscribing for the whole season (http://skeevepicks.com/index.php?page=members-only).
The 5% discount is through September, so act fast, but if you mention my name and that I was late publishing this post because of my granddad duties, maybe he'll extend the discount by a few days!

His unofficial selection of Dagenham and Redbridge to win promotion was made a couple of weeks ago when they were around 6.0, and the best available now is 4.0 with betway or BetVictor who may let you have 50p on if you're lucky. 

1 comment:

Aliocha Bardou said...

Hi Cassini.

Recently found your blog, I really enjoy it and have been reading back a few months.

I am quite intrigued about the Draw4 system, as i am currently doing something similar, albeit in different leagues.
I have found 2nd best leagues to be quite generous with draws, and i'm currently tracking Ligue 2, Serie B, La Liga 2, Portugal Segunda and Championship draw for the season(and a few others).

In my records i have used the best closing odds between the bookies where i have an account(Pinnacle, bet365 and 5dimes), and the season to date results are as follows:
424 Games
+79 units, +18% ROI with 4/5 leagues being in the green(Championship sits at -14%)

An extreme outlier is the Iranian Pro league, with about 50% draws this season, yielding 59% ROI after 56 games. Last season ended with about 35% draws.

What do you think about betting draws by league trends?
I'm looking to narrow down the amount of games to a more playable amount. Perhaps taking the 2-3 most drawing teams from the 5-6 most drawing leagues?
All in all i think draws hold great value, partly since they are so uncomfortable to bet.

All the best
Kankerganker