Wednesday, 3 May 2017

April Baseball

April was a solid enough for followers of the MLB Systems I said I'd be following

After 15 selections, the T-Bone strategy is up 1.15 points:

The Implied Probability > 0.75 System had just the one selection, and one winner and has lost just three times in the last 35. This is not a system for the impatient, with an average of about eight selections a season, although last season saw 21 picks which was very unusual.

In the last 50 years, only two MLB teams have ended the regular season with a .700 record or better.

In 1998, the New York Yankees had a .704 record and in 2001, the Seattle Mariners had a .716 record.

On theflip-side, only the 2003 Detroit Tigers have finished sub .300 in that time.

In other words, baseball is as even a playing field in sports as you'll find in major sports. 

For many years, the reverse favourite-longshot bias held true in baseball, but as I highlighted in 2015, this ceased to be true around 2011.

Especially in April.

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