Wednesday, 3 May 2017

And It's Goodbye From Him - Priorities

At least twenty-eight new followers on Twitter so far today, though I fear they will be somewhat disappointed given that my Tweets are few and far between. 

As is often the case with these surges of interest, the reason for the up-tick in interest wasn't immediately apparent, but a little digging revealed the reason, which is the retirement from trading of Twitter account:

@statsbet has been mentioned on this blog before, one of those rare individuals who actually questions claims and isn't afraid to swim against the current, so his reasons for quitting are worth reading. @statsbet posted two images, which are reproduced here.

He opens with the revelation that he has a young family, and as any readers with children will be aware, those formative years are precious, and once passed, can never be re-gained. There can't be many things sadder than spending hours a day on a computer at the cost of time with your children.

Easy for me to say, as my kids were babies at the time I ran into account closures back in the early nineties and was forced into giving up betting for many years, and grown by the time I discovered Betfair. 

I'd like to think that I would have put my kids first had the timing been different, but if I'm honest with myself, I'm not sure that would have been the case. I have a habit of trying to justify my actions in the rare event that they are less than perfect. 

Statsbet makes the point below that time is precious, and the amount of time spent trading football simply isn't justified by the 'meagre' returns. For most, the returns are negative, never mind meagre, and if your hourly return is less than the average wage, you'd be better off investing that time in a career. 

Apologies for the bad language below, but apparently Statsbet is passionate about his reasons:   
All very logical if you ask me. It's in the second part of statsbet's retirement letter that the reason for the increased traffic becomes apparent, and again be warned that there are rude words included:
So there you have it, in no uncertain terms, and when it comes to football, it's very true. You will not find an edge from looking at statistics, either pre-game or in-play. There are some big players involved with far more resources than most of us, and they are not in the markets to lose money to you. It's not what most people want to read, and I'm sure most will still carry on, illogically thinking that they have the unique ability of discovering an edge that everyone else has somehow missed.

Historical results from matches between clubs in previous seasons have no predictive value. Goal timings are well studied and understood, and you won't find an edge anywhere after seeing (along with everyone else) that Newport County have scored an early goal. The markets have all these variables factored in.

You can pore over all the stats you like, but they won't give you an edge, but if you can identify trends early as statsbet says, then you can surf the wave until it, as all waves do, crashes. 

Even the long profitable Bundeslayga appears headed for a loss this season.    

1 comment:

Tony Stephens said...
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