Wednesday, 10 May 2017

Trends, Tears and Takeaways

My Future Savvy post of last week was triggered by a comment from Tony Stephens, and Tony returned to say:

Thanks for the detailed response on this. I think your answer explains what I suspected was meant when discussing trend trading, so I’m glad I asked.
There will be some, maybe many that will see the words trend trading and interpret this as trying to identify a trend on a market by market basis. Some might state they are not a scalper of certain markets, but more of a trend trader where they are waiting to see the fav in a particular market getting backed in and trying to follow the trend in.
Just to clarify my “sad” opening. I do feel a small amount of sadness that someone who probably enjoyed the game at one point has taken the decision to not continue at all. I completely understand that the right decision was made for them so I’m happy about that!.
Maybe I’m lucky that can I go to the races and not bet a penny as I just enjoy predicting the potential winner safe in the knowledge that I’m not very good at spotting value but enjoy trying anyway. I probably spend more time thinking about trading/betting than actually being involved in it. So, it may seem like a massive waste of time but if the wife is watching x factor or ant and decs sat night takeaway I don’t feel like I’m missing out on anything :-)
To the first part of Tony's comment, my use of the term trend is used as a long-term concept, something identified over a period of time that far exceeds that of one sports betting market. 

As for the second part, it's not clear whether 'enjoying the game' refers to the sport itself or to betting / trading.

If the 'game' is betting, there's nothing sad about leaving it behind.  

If it's literally the 'game', there's no reason why Statsbet can't continue to enjoy the sport while not having money on it. Most sports are enjoyable enough on their own merit without requiring a financial interest to make them so, or they wouldn't exist. When I go to watch Crystal Palace or Bath Rugby, it's for sporting or social reasons and I don't (usually) have money on the outcome. Some would say that this season that's a good thing! 

The one exception to sports and betting is Tony's example which exists purely because of betting. 

For me, watching horses running around a field is not entertainment, more like a torture. Having a financial interest on the outcome is mandatory if I am to watch it, except I understand that as an outsider, I am never going to be getting value, and as I don't like losing money, I don't do it. 

Finally, for anyone who has a wife who likes to watch garbage on television, my advice, as an experienced married man, is to leave her to it and go out for a pint and a curry with the lads and talk about politics. Ant and Dec! Have some self respect man!      

1 comment:

Tony Stephens said...
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