Sunday, 30 July 2017

National Steamers Away


A comment (above) via Twitter on my Black Cats and T-Bones post certainly hits the nail on the head.

Also via Twitter, and Statistical Trading ( @Statsbet ) has been keeping me busy validating various possible weaknesses in football markets. I became a little concerned when he asked me to take a look at Aways in League Two  - has he not been paying attention and reading this blog?

Shame! Back in February I wrote:
League Two is again where the Aways are leading the way, and for the sixth straight season, it looks like they will end above the 30% level.

Using Pinnacle's Closing prices, this continues to be a money-spinner, but don't tell everybody
Apparently this joke was taken literally, and no one told old Statty.

In May I published the final numbers in his post, although cautioning that "past performance is no guarantee of future success of course, especially in a division that churns 25% of it's members each season, but one to watch next season."
Also via Twitter, and Miguel referenced an old post of mine from almost 18 months ago, which highlighted the challenges of finding an edge in the top leagues where you are competing with the likes of Starlizard, although 10% of EPL matches will be off-limits to them this season as:
Starlizard don't place any bets on Brighton, given Bloom and other directors' roles at the club.
As a Crystal Palace fan, one can only hope they are off-limits in the EPL for just the one season, although the six guaranteed points will come in handy as we push for a top four finish. I'm kidding of course - not about the top four finish, but the desire to see Brighton struggle this season. Tony Bloom deserves a lot of credit for what Brighton have achieved and so long as they finish below Palace, which most teams will do this season, the M23 derby (currently locked at 37 wins each, with 24 draws), and arguably up there with El Superclásico and the plain old El Clásico, sees a welcome renewal this season. 

As it's the eve of a new season, and most readers will forget this as soon as they've read it, I thought I might share a thought I had regarding the lower leagues. Back in May I mentioned that:
If you go too far down the football pyramid, you run into problems not only of liquidity, but also the problem where the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of certain key players becomes critical.
Many of you will be familiar with Skeeve, who has been profitable in the National League since forever. How does he do it? By studying the teams in great detail. See this post for an example. Since there are so few people studying this league to the extent that Skeeve does, he gets himself an edge.

Most of us don't have the time for this level of research and analysis however. 

As with League Two, backing Aways blindly in the National League over the past three seasons has been profitable.
Not that many of us have the time to do this, but were you to wait until close to kick-off, and limit your bets to Away teams who have drifted slightly (up to 2.5%) or shortened by up to 10%, your return increases to 93.25 points from a more manageable total of 912 bets (ROI 10.22%). 

An easier way to increase your ROI is to simply use the Home price as a filter, and back the Away team when the Home team has an Implied Probability in the 0.25 to 0.649 range +125.65 points from 1369 bets. 

I'll take a look at League One next and see how high up the food chain the steamer / drifter effect is seen. I'd expect it to be highest in the lowest division and decrease but we'll see.  

2 comments:

Miguel Rodrigues said...

Skeave example is the perfect example for the ones with a exclusively mathematical based approach that look at fundamental analysys as a primitive source of an edge
I agree that the likelyhood(and i experienced myself in the early phase of my betting journey in La Liga)of that type of approach working in the main European Leagues in the long haul slim to none(insane market competition and know-how,better resources employed by the bookies in the oppening lines,less avg deviation between openers and closers,etc)
However if you understand the sport,the league and teams particular characteristics and most importantly are willing to work harder researching for more information than anyone or the majority you can be one of the market leaders and earners in a medium/lower level league,you just have to assure that A you have information that is not in the line and orB you process the current information available and market over/undereactions better than anyone.
Fotball teams are «stock prices» and altough the odds efficiency in the main leagues is so strong that is difficult for the experienced bettor to see if the price is currently 5% off with fundamental analysys that is very doable in lower level leagues and i can not empasize skeeve example much,in betting there will always exist spots for the guy who is willing to outwork and outlearn the competition,at least in the next 5 years
The problem with fundamental analysys is its usually a low volume approach and difficult to use great staking methods like Kelly but should not be viewed as a primitive source of an edge.
i will end this long comment with joseph buchdal
There is no right or wrong approach to seeking a betting edge. Ultimately, the best one is the one that works for you, one that returns a profit. However, what each approach has in common is a shared aim of finding "value" in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker Buchdal
i would love to knwow you take on this opinion and if you find any particular flaw in my assumpsions please let me know

Stewboss said...

The NL picture looks very different if you factor 2013/14 results into the mix Cassini!