Thursday 20 July 2017

Wimbledon Favourites (W) Buck the Trend

Following on naturally from my previous post, for the Ladies Singles, Wimbledon 2017 was a different story where backing the favourite in every game was a very profitable strategy, up 13.40 points, an ROI of 11%.

Here are the results for backing Ladies Grand Slam favourites this year at Pinnacle's prices:

Not that I am complaining, but I did find a couple of errors in Joseph Buchdahl's Mens Wimbledon 2016 data.

In the Final, I'm pretty sure that Andy Murray was not a best priced 4.36 to win, and similarly I don't think Grigor Dimitrov was a 1.75 favourite with Pinnacle to beat Stevie Johnson in their 3rd Round match.

The previous post has been updated to correct this palpable error.

I'll update the numbers after the US Open completes the 2017 Grand Slam season, but it's clear that since 2013, if you're betting on Men, stick to the favourites in Australia and France, and take the rest of the year off, and if the Women's game is your preference, stick to underdogs from the fourth round onwards. 

Such a strategy would have profited between 34.11 and 58.47 points (Men) and between 37.10 and 53.75 points (Women). 

Not a great return for the effort involved on the men's side, and frankly not my cup of tea, but for the women, 15 matches a tournament is a manageable number of bets, and since 2013 (19 tournaments) would have an ROI of between 13% and 18.9% (37.10 to 53.75 points).

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