Thursday, 18 January 2018

Beloved Draws and Wives

Prompted by Richard's above reply, I did look at the 0:0 and indeed the number of goals scored in matches sorted by the difference in the teams, using their implied win probabilities. I even threw in the Under 2.5 totals for you all.

The expectation would be that in games between evenly matched teams, there would be fewer goals and a higher frequency of the beloved, or hated, 0:0.

With 2130 games since the Pinnacle Closing Era, one quick way of seeing if this idea has merit is to sort the games by difference into deciles of 213 matches each.

The average number of goals per game is 2.72. By decile, with the first decile between the most closely ranked teams, the numbers are:
The results are as expected, with 45% of the 0:0 scores in the 'closest' 30% of matches. As I cautioned yesterday, without the 0:0 prices, whether this is a profitable strategy or not remains uncertain.

Fifteen 'Big 6' matches (of 168) ended 0:0, ten of those in either October, November or December. 

Marty left a comment on yesterday's post, perhaps thinking I am an LDS member, offering some marital advice:
If you get made redundant please don't forget to spend some of that spare time with your older wife.
Very droll Marty. When you get to my age, there aren't too many women older than me around, and talking of age, and multiple wives, I did like this tweet from legendary financier T Boone Pickens, who was recently in the news for calling it a day for his "energy-focused hedge fund he has run for the last two decades as his health declines". 

I guess at his age, energy starts to run out, but perhaps not his sense of humour. Asked his opinion on cryptocurrency, he replied:
For the record, he's currently on his fifth marriage. He can afford those divorces. 

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