Wednesday, 17 January 2018

More Draw, Tense Situation

My post on the English Premier League Draw last week proved to be one of the most popular articles ever with esteemed writers David Sumpter (@Soccermatics) and Joseph Buchdahl (@12xpert) both commenting.

David wrote:

I hope David wasn’t disappointed by my research. In the days of 111% over-rounds, and minimum bets of trebles, the idea that the draw might offer value was of academic rather than practical interest. David publicised the idea when it was actionable.

Joseph wanted me to resuscitate the XX Draw system but the idea of going back almost four seasons, and re-activating an old spreadsheet, and processing 1,370 matches with each taking maybe 10 minutes, (i.e. 28 days at 8 hours a day), is a non-starter. This excludes the time for adding in newly promoted teams at the end of each season, so we’re probably talking about a full month in total. My wife would not be happy.

There’s also nothing to be gained from going back. The mention of the XX Draws was to demonstrate my long history with the Draw rather than to make a claim on my model at the time, which would be pointless given that it was put to sleep years ago.

If the XX Draws continued to be profitable, it’s highly unlikely that any extra profit would justify the time required to find them. If they turned into losses, it only confirms my suspicion that the days when an individual armed with an Excel spreadsheet could compete with the well-resourced likes of Starlizard are over.

The truth is that while the XX Draws were profitable, a simple strategy of avoiding matches with odds-on favourites was also profitable. 
Time isn’t free, and the reason I abandoned the model. Perfect is the enemy of the good. If I can find in five minutes a method of generating an ROI% of 10%, it’s probably not worth nearly two hours as a hobby punter to increase that to 11%.

Other comments on the article included:
I'd suggest me, and anyone on the Unders. 

Some readers will know that I call this the Perfect Draw, while others refer to it as a Bore or Snore Draw. I'll take a look at the 0:0 as time permits. 

Presumably the premise is that a 0:0 is more likely in games between two closely matched teams, and while overall the 0:0 makes up 32.7% of Draws in the EPL, when the difference in win probability is up to 30%, this percentage increases to 34.4%. Without the 0:0 price though, whether this is a profitable strategy or not remains uncertain. 

I took a look at the English Championship to see if some of the findings from the Premier League held up, and found that the simple no-odds-on filter again made for a profitable outcome, although much reduced by comparison:
I'll publish more Draw related data from other leagues in the future, likely in the summer. I have another trip with work starting next week which will keep me away from home until February.

A different angle on the draw being value when two teams are ranked as close comes from A Lucky A Day who tweeted:
This is not an area I've looked at, but the same logic would seem to apply. It would be interesting to have some stats on this. 

Speaking of stats, with the Australian Open this week, it's probably a good time to publish the results for the Men and Women since 2013 at this event. First the Men, where the favourite holds sway:
Nothing so clear cut on the Women's side of the competition:
Finally, for an, albeit self-published, writer, retired blogger James Butler demonstrates an alarming inability to understand some of the more subtle nuances of the English language. 

Hot on the tail of his confusing Technical Analysis with Fundamental Analysis, he now misunderstands his verbs, tweeting:
Indeed, nothing is for sale. Note the present tense being used there. Is. Words mean things, and apparently James missed that small, but important, detail.

I guess it is arguable that including links to sites where James’ books are sold is technically a breach of the “nothing is for sale” mantra, but I think 99.9% of readers understand what is meant by that line. It certainly doesn’t mean, nor is it intended to imply, that nothing will ever be for sale at some point in the future, but a book remains a long way off.

While the reference to writing a Green All Over book was mentioned as one possibility to fill my spare time should I be made redundant and while my younger wife is still working, the chances of any publication are certainly slim, if not none. The suggestion of a film based on the book was also a casual comment, not one that I intended to be taken seriously.

In the extremely unlikely event that a Green All Over book and film are produced, James can rest assured that the blog by-line will be changed to reflect this, and readers will be encouraged to both buy the book and see the film. I've heard it’s common practice after writing a book, to try and sell copies of it.

The theory that retirement leads to mental deterioration seems to have gained some traction in the light of James’ recent and frequent confusions.

I think I’d better keep working for as long as I can, lest I suffer the same fate! 

1 comment:

Marty said...

If you get made redundant please don't forget to spend some of that spare time with your older wife.