Monday, 2 October 2017

Even The Losers

James left a comment on the Fundamental Analysis v Technical Analysis topic, which only makes his suggestion from last week (below) even more curious:

Maybe it was the Jameson kicking in after a long night of carousing, but not one of my publicly revealed systems is based on Fundamental Analysis.

James does at least now agree that Fundamental can include both public and private data, writing:
To clarify my definitions as per the book Betfair Trading Techniques...
Fundamental data is that which makes one team/competitor better than another, which can include public data such as win, draw, loss records etc. private data such as a player's current health or mindset, and even financial muscle data and use in transfer markets.
Technical data makes no consideration of teams and players and looks only at markets, prices and volume with no knowledge of to whom those figures are attached.
Hybrid strategies might calculate odds lines from fundamental data and traded optimally using technical data.
With the MLB regular season wrapping up yesterday, the final Technical-Bone, abbreviated to T-Bone, System results are in:
A small loss on the Run Line, but more than compensated for on the Straight Up bets. Hopefully some of you made some money on these this season. 

For the Short Priced Favourites (Technical) System, the final results were:
To show the trend in recent years, I have broken down the totals by four or five year periods.

The NFL Small Road 'Dogs saw one winner and one loser yesterday, although some followers like myself may well have been on the Detroit Lions bet at +2.5 which was a winner. Unfortunately for the official records, the closing line was +2 so it misses out. Still early days, but next week looks like a bumper week for selections. The 'official' results so far:

1 comment:

Tony Stephens said...

If you take James' criteria you have satisfied one element in the short price fav "system" in that you are looking at market price data. You are then using historical win, draw, loss data to work out if that historic price was correct or not. For me this is weighted towards fundamental rather than technical. You are not considering any other elements of the market structure to fully qualify for the technical status ;-)