Friday, 20 October 2017

Sports Equinox

They call it a Sports Equinox in the USA, one of those rare days when there are games in all four major sports.

Yesterday was such a day, just the seventeenth ever, and the first on a day other than a Sunday or a Monday. Courtesy of fivethirtyeight.com, here is the full list:
From a betting perspective, the day failed to live up to the hype. The MLB UMPO selection was the Chicago Cubs, and they were blown out by the Los Angeles Dodgers and their reign as "world" champions, as the US likes to describe their domestic champions, is over.

No selection in the NFL for the Small Road 'Dogs as the road team were favourites, and in the NBA just three games meant one bet, but a losing one for the Beast as the Clippers beat the Lakers in the battle of Los Angeles.

Albufeira Steve returned with a further comment on the Minimum Bet Rules post a few days ago. He writes:
I think the main difference with racing in the UK is the size of the margin. The UK soft books have been forced to run a very different business model to an Australian bookmaker. Due to competition and prevalence of odds comparison sites, margins have been squeezed to an extent that at best prices in the popular Saturday races, you can bet at less than 100%! They also offer best odds guaranteed, so if a horse drifts you get the better starting price. It is virtually impossible for a bookmaker to make a balanced book, within their margin, in a majority of UK races. In reality, for anyone with half a brain, it is harder to lose on UK racing with a soft book, than it is to win. The UK soft books have taken a business decision to use this loss leader model and only accept recreational gamblers who will lose their money on other channels.

This is not as bad as it initially sounds. The majority of punters are long term losers and will never suffer from restrictions. The fact that the margins on UK soft books at best prices, have been reduced to such a small amount, that recreational punters will lose money much slower than they used to. More than likely there will be more winning punters than before. OK, its due to luck rather than skill, but in reality most punters in the UK have not been effected by restrictions and are actually better off then they were pre-restrictions.

The punters that have been effected by restrictions, if they can really beat the market, still have the option to play on the base books and exchanges who do not restrict.
Markets and conditions change. Winning punters have to learn to change with them, instead of complaining that the edge they used to have has been taken away.
Thanks for the added detail Steve. I've long written that traditional bookmakers will ban punters who look like they have a clue (or more than half a brain perhaps) even if they have yet to take money from them. Again, as I said last week:
And if your accounts are not closed or restricted after a few weeks? Ask yourself what that is saying about you.
And as Steve says, you always have options for betting, since the exchanges do not ban winners (some just charge you a small fortune if you're really good, but at least you can play) and the new model sportsbooks welcome winners too, using their money to help them set sharper lines. 

An edge, with no place to bet, is no edge, and if an edge is lost, you need to adapt.  

1 comment:

Tony Stephens said...

So are we agreed that the gambling authorities should continue to give licenses to books where their business model can only work by only accepting bets from losers, even over very short periods of 1-2 bets?