Saturday, 21 October 2017

Gambling Spectrum

Just as the dust was settling, and we could all move on with our lives, Marty chimes in a thought on one aspect that he posits might be considered a fundamental approach.

I think one could make a case that whether the team is 'on the road' is fundamental information (ie is neither integral to the description of the contract / bet and is non-price). I don't know your systems completely, but this is the only area I would say might not be technical. You could also argue that past results are technical information because they are, generally, contained in the settlement price the correct score market.
Although the system mentioned is called the Small Road 'Dogs System, and that's the way I choose to play it, I could just as easily be playing a Lay Small Home Favourites System. 

It would make no difference, because the system is based on the determination that the market is inefficient when the line is (relatively) close to a pick, and that makes it a purely technical system.

Because every match has to have a venue, it's a given that there will (usually) be a home team and an away (road) team. Thus, home or away is irrelevant.

Past results are a major factor in where the line or price settles for a market, but whether or not a system is considered technical, fundamental or a combination of both, is based on how selections are determined, and these selections in my published systems are determined solely by the price. 

Were I to add conditions based on "injury reports, previous results, days of rest, time zones, individual match ups and so on" that would be adding fundamental analysis to the mix, but who has time for that?

Tony Stephens returns with a couple more comments, the first asking:
Does it really matter if criteria is technical or fundamental? Would one place additional confidence in a system that was classified either way?
What matters in regards to the approach, is what works for each individual. Confidence in a system comes from its results, not from the method.

The only reason this became a hot topic, and why the different approaches needed to be explained, was that my answer to @Statsbet's question was called out as being incorrect. The question was:  
Would you advise technical analysis or fundamental/statistical or both?
My answer - Technical analysis. 

I followed up with some explanatory details, which were that:
Unless you have access to private (insider) information, fundamental analysis is a waste of time. Others will always know more than you. Let all (private and publicly available) information hit the market, and then focus on a statistical analysis of the market’s estimate of probabilities. Try to understand the market sentiment behind the prices, and identify areas where the market may be vulnerable.
This drew the following response which normally wouldn't be a big deal, but coming from someone who is usually a rare voice of rationality and common sense in a murky pool of guessers, salesmen, tricksters and nincompoops, it was important to point out the error.
No systems on my website (blog) are based on fundamental analysis, and whether data is public or private is totally irrelevant. To claim otherwise is simply wrong.

Tony, clearly looking to become a full-time contributor at Green All Over HQ, (the pay isn't that great to be honest, but the Xmas parties are legendary) had a second comment:
So are we agreed that the gambling authorities should continue to give licenses to books where their business model can only work by only accepting bets from losers, even over very short periods of 1-2 bets?
The question is confusingly phrased, but I'm not against the idea of only licensing bookmakers who agree to operate as bookmakers! Certain protections would need to be in place regarding bet limits, but books who don't take relatively small bets on major events shouldn't be in business. That so many are in business is testament to the stupidity of people, or more politely, to the number of people who bet for fun with no idea about value. 

On this topic of having access, and the range of punting types, there's a passage in Adam Kucharski's "The Perfect Bet" that I was reminded of:
In an environment where there is apparently no shortage of players happy to lose steadily, the issue is whether regulators should allow books to restrict their customer base to this group, and maximise profits, or to enforce access to the sharper end of the spectrum, and reduce profits. The sharper end currently have no right to be granted access, but they do have options.

One way of looking at the issue is by comparing a bookmaker with a casino, where slot machines are like customers. While a casino is happy to have machines paying out at close to, but less than, 100%, they wouldn't be too happy at being told they have to have a machine installed paying out over 100%. 

As much as I would like to see bookmakers act as bookmakers, I don't see anything changing. What should happen is that customers take their business elsewhere and force the industry to change voluntarily, but as I mentioned earlier, there's a seemingly endless supply of money from people who simply don't care about losing. Unless human nature changes, traditional bookmakers will keep making their profits from these customers and sharps will just have to work around restrictions, or apply their skills in another way.

Thanks for all the comments. As stated before, it's always much easier to post new articles when the conversation is flowing.


Tony Stephens said...

I bought the perfect bet on kindle (It was one of Mr James' recommendations) so with a few references from yourself also, I should probably get past the 16% completion mark I'm currently on. With regards to my comments to this blog I do so knowing I will get an honest, well thought out response, that can't be matched in any skype group or chat forum. To be honest, some of the detail in the blog and your passion of the subject is actually mind blowing and you cant argue with that. Or can you !?!

KiwiRoadrunner said...

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