Tuesday, 17 October 2017

Total Moves

We ended with up with a bumper crop of 14 selections in total this weekend for the Small Football Road 'Dogs and with a 9-5 record no one should be complaining. 

Ten of these matches were either Conference or Division games, and these ended with a 6-4 record. 

The baseball play-offs are not doing so well, with UMPO down 10.58 points with a 5-17 record. The PO Overs ended up 11-5-1 (+5.47) to offset some of the damage.

With the two Championship Series now in progress, the value on Totals moves (slightly) to the Unders:
The NBA is back tonight with last season's finalists both opening the new season at home.  Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors are odds-on to win their respective Conferences and repeat in the final for the fourth consecutive year.

With the increase in scoring I mentioned here last month the Blunders system made it's first loss since 2010, although 2015-16 showed warning signs of a decline.
A good example of how a fundamental change in the way teams play the game changes / eliminates the profitability of a system.

As I mentioned in that September post, I'll be looking at backing Overs in the 216+ range, which should average over two bets a day. 

In 2014-15 there would have been 36 selections, in 2015-16 117, and last season 362!  That's quite an increase.

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