Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Bookshops and Indeterminacy

While I was finishing off this morning’s post and confirming the date and venue of Haralabos Voulgaris' observations regarding the changes in the way NBA teams are now playing basketball, I came across this example of fundamental versus technical analysis, a topic discussed here recently following a mistaken tweet that confused fundamental analysis with data that is public.
The excellent book "The Perfect Bet" by Adam Kucharski gives an example of someone interested in buying a book shop. He gives two ways in which a prospective buyer might go about making his decision on which one to buy. One is to go into each store you short list, and check the inventory, interview management and examine the accounts. The second is to sit outside, and count how many customers enter, and how many books they leave with. The former is a “fundamental” approach, the latter is “technical”.

Twitter user Overs Specialist tweeted today that:

I can’t think of anything more ‘determinate’ than a system that says “If the price is this, bet”.

The entry point couldn’t be clearer, and there is no exit point other than that the event concludes, and the bet wins or loses. 

These systems are not trading systems, and the biggest benefit of a simplistic technical approach is the time saving.

What “when a market penetrates your line, you’re out” means, I have no idea.

I think the suggestion is to invest additional time predicting how the markets will move from the open, and good luck with that, but not only are you now looking at spending a lot more time, but as I keep saying, you’re competing with others far more knowledgeable than yourself, especially when we’re talking about football which is Overs Specialist speciality.
How exactly an edge is to be obtained betting on matches in South America, Poland, Montenegro etc. remains an unsolved mystery. A cynic might be of the opinion that football experts in South America, Poland, Montenegro might be better placed, but maybe Overs Specialist has contacts around the globe as do the likes of SmartOdds and StarLizard. 

1 comment:

James said...

Once again, I didn't say fundamental data is, and only is, public data.

Tweet size limit prevented me from typing "using public data", which your systems do use (i.e. public price and fundamental data). To my knowledge, you have no access to private data.

I'll have to be careful not to type pedant bait in future.