Sunday, 1 October 2017

MLB 2017: Centurions and Hotties

A question from SportsPicksSystem on the UMPO System, another purely Technical Analysis system mentioned on this blog:

For UMPO, what is your criteria to consider a team to be the underdog?
Home: 1.924
Away: 1.971

Is away the underdog or just too close to call?
The UMPO link actually answers this question:
UMPO is an acronym for Underdogs MLB Play-Off and is a simple strategy which backs odds-against underdogs in the Major League Baseball Play-offs.
So when both teams are odds-on, there is no play.

The MLB regular season is over, and not only was it unusual for the record number of Home Runs I wrote about here, but 2017 was also only the fifth 162 game season in which three teams won 100 or more games. 

As I wrote in 2015, the reverse favourite-longshot bias long held to be true in baseball, ceased to exist around 2011.

Backing hot favourites in the regular season since then, hot here being defined as those with an implied probability greater than .666, is +150.84 points, from 1,284 bets, an impressive ROI of 11.74%.
2017 was the best season to date straight up, +55.70 points with another +29.49 on the Run Line. Hopefully some of you followed this system this season. It was profitable in every month for those who don't like too much volatility.

I'll review the T-Bone System in the next few days. 

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